553 Ellicott St St

Batavia, NY 14020

$115,000B

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,524 sqft · Built 1900 · MultiFamily · Pending · 5 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,942/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$603
• Tax + insurance: −$394
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$618
• Net cashflow: $1,327/mo
• Annual: $15,920/yr
• Cap rate: 22.14%
• Cash-on-cash: 56.61%
• DSCR: 3.52
• 1% rule: 2.56%
• Cash to close: $32,200

Investor read

• This is a 2 × 2-bed/1.0-bath units multifamily listed at $115k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($16k/yr) — positive. Per door: $663/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $115k).
• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $795 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#536 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: employment C-, crime D+, amenities F.
• Batavia City School District (town): math 38% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #477 of 590 in NY (top 81%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: John Kennedy School (math 35% / reading 50%, grade F, #1,356 of 2,108 statewide, top 64%, 481 students, 56% FRL); Batavia Middle School (math 23% / reading 50%, grade F, #464 of 729 statewide, top 64%, 595 students, 54% FRL); Batavia High School (math 87% / reading 75%, grade A, #485 of 1,100 statewide, top 45%, 645 students, 45% FRL) — zoned schools at 52% FRL track the district average.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $192/mo; built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 91 active listings in the ZIP; 55 units permitted in Genesee County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Genesee County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• Current owner paid $83k; 38% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $32k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AH (mandatory federal flood insurance) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 22.1% vs local median 5.5% in Batavia — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $2,942/mo this rent would consume 56% of the median local household income ($63k/yr) (locally 817% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
• What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
• Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.