553 Ellicott St St · Batavia, NY 14020

$115,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,524 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 5 Days on market

Built 1900 0.28 ac lot Est $126k · 9% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +11.6/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 2 units. confirmed

Listing remarks

City of Batavia 2 Unit with 2 LONG TERM TENANTS!! Rents could be higher. Both units feature 2 bedrooms, full bath, living room, formal dining room in the lower apartment and eat-in kitchen in the upper. There is 2 forced air gas furnace's & 2 gas hot water heaters. Separate 100amp electrical services, new metal roof 2017, some new windows, separate blacktop driveways for the tenants, laundry hookups, aluminum siding and a huge rear yard to spread out in. NO DELAYED NEGOTIATIONS! CHECK IT OUT!!

Key facts

• New metal roof
• Blacktop driveways
• New windows

Tags

• FORCED AIR GAS FURNACE
• GAS HOT WATER HEATERS
• SEPARATE ELECTRICAL SERVICES
• NEW METAL ROOF
• NEW WINDOWS
• BLACKTOP DRIVEWAYS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2 × 2-bed/1.0-bath units multifamily listed at $115k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($16k/yr) — positive. Per door: $663/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $115k).
• Cap rate 22.1% vs local median 5.5% in Batavia — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#536 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: employment C-, crime D+, amenities F.
• Batavia City School District (town): math 38% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #477 of 590 in NY (top 81%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: John Kennedy School (math 35% / reading 50%, grade F, #1,356 of 2,108 statewide, top 64%, 481 students, 56% FRL); Batavia Middle School (math 23% / reading 50%, grade F, #464 of 729 statewide, top 64%, 595 students, 54% FRL); Batavia High School (math 87% / reading 75%, grade A, #485 of 1,100 statewide, top 45%, 645 students, 45% FRL) — zoned schools at 52% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 91 active listings in the ZIP; 55 units permitted in Genesee County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,942/mo this rent would consume 56% of the median local household income ($63k/yr) (locally 817% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $795 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Genesee County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $32k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $83k; 38% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $192/mo; built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AH (mandatory federal flood insurance) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $115,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
2. What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
3. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.56% ✓
• Cap rate: 22.14%
• Cash-on-cash: 56.61%
• DSCR: 3.52
• GRM: 3.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $126,492
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1 Cone St	0.74mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,521 (-0%)	20mo	$110,000	$72	44
135 Liberty St	0.60mi	5/2.0 (+1)	1,714 (+12%)	6mo	$142,000	$83	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 47.1%
• Equity multiple: 3.05×
• Total profit: $66,029
• Equity at exit: $17,147

10-year hold

• IRR: 52.9%
• Equity multiple: 6.19×
• Total profit: $166,984
• Equity at exit: $9,943

Cash invested: $32,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14020

• Home prices YoY: -10.4%
• Active inventory: 91
• Price-to-rent: 6.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,942 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$603
• Tax from tax record: −$154 /mo · $1,850/yr
• Insurance: −$48
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$192 /mo · $2,309/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$618
• Net cashflow: $1,327

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,263

Max offer price $115,000

Occupancy floor 50%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,392	-5% $1,359	+0% $1,327	+5% $1,294	+10% $1,262
Rent	-10% $1,094	-5% $1,210	+0% $1,327	+5% $1,443	+10% $1,559
Rate	-1.0pp $1,385	-0.5pp $1,356	base $1,327	+0.5pp $1,297	+1.0pp $1,267

2-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 2× units	2	1	$2,942
Total (2 units)			$2,942

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $28,750
• Closing costs: $3,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-04-15
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-10
   listed $115,000 Active
3. 2007-01-04
   soldstatus $83,120
4. 2004-03-29
   soldstatus $64,600
5. 1995-09-14
   soldstatus $65,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,850 · $154/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,897 · $158/mo
• Expected delta: +$47/yr (+$4/mo · 2.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone AH · 24% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $35,304
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,442
• − Property taxes: −$1,850
• − Insurance: −$2,884
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,824
• − Management: −$2,824
• − Depreciation: −$3,345
• Taxable income: $15,135
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,632
• After-tax cash flow: $12,287/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Batavia City School District
• NCES district ID: 3603990
• Math proficiency: 38% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,288
• Composite: 37.13/100
• National rank: #4490
• State rank: #477 of 590 in NY

Livability — Batavia

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #536
• US rank: #9660

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Batavia, NY
• County: Genesee County · 22,002 people
• City population: 22,002
• Metro: Batavia, NY
• Population (ZIP): 22,002
• Household income: $62,655
• Rent vs Own: 37.0% rent · 63.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 817.0

Population outlook (Genesee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 56,113 people
• By 2030: 54,140 · -3.5%
• By 2040: 49,368 · -12.0%
• By 2050: 43,911 · -21.7%
• By 2075: 32,511 · -42.1%
• By 2100: 21,695 · -61.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 4% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 11% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Genesee

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+34.0) · D 33.0% · R 67.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.6pp toward R · 2008: -18.4pp · 2024: -34.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+34.0 2020: R+31.7 2016: R+37.0 2012: R+20.9 2008: R+18.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -30.58%
• Current HPI: 263.2147
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Batavia, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+76.9% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-15 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2026-04-10 Listed $115,000 WNYREIS
• 2007-01-04 Sold (Public Records) $83,120 Public Records
• 2004-03-29 Sold (Public Records) $64,600 Public Records
• 1995-09-14 Sold (Public Records) $65,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-6.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,850 · -47.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.