3 bd · 2.0 ba ·
2,131 sqft ·
Built 1987
· SingleFamily
· Pending
· 9 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,483/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,127
Tax + insurance
−$150
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$311
Net cashflow
$-106/mo
Annual
$-1,267/yr
Cap rate
5.70%
Cash-on-cash
-2.11%
DSCR
0.91
1% rule
0.69%
Cash to close
$60,172
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $215k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-106 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $196k (8.7% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $148k (31.0% below list).
Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
Recommended offer: $148k (31.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
In year one you build about $23k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $21k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
Location reads 61/100 on livability (#237 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A-, health & safety B; Watch: schools F, crime D-, amenities F.
Market conditions: 45 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,678 units permitted in Mobile County in 2024 (264 in 5+ unit buildings).
Mobile County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
Current owner paid $108k; list at $215k implies a 100% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$37k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 7.2% in Chickasaw — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-G32K7C6CQ2B8Z3
· Data 3 weeks agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29