436 Hill St

Danville, VT 05828

$235,000D

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 2,065 sqft · Built 1875 · SingleFamily · Active · 43 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,101/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,232
• Tax + insurance: −$330
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$231
• Net cashflow: $-692/mo
• Annual: $-8,305/yr
• Cap rate: 2.76%
• Cash-on-cash: -12.62%
• DSCR: 0.44
• 1% rule: 0.47%
• Cash to close: $65,800

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $235k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-692 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $113k (52.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $110k (53.1% below list).
• It's been on market 43 days — a 3% lower offer ($228k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $110k (53.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $25k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $24k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#74 in VT) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A-, housing A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Watch-outs: built in 1875 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 10 active listings in the ZIP; 112 units permitted in Caledonia County in 2024 (15 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Caledonia County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 3 sale attempts since 13y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $54k (19%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $104k; list at $235k implies a 127% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$40k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 43 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 53% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1875 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.