2968 Courtland Oaks Trl SW

Smyrna, GA 30060

$388,000D

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 3,183 sqft · Built 2003 · SingleFamily · Pending · 8 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,913/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,035
• Tax + insurance: −$260
• HOA: −$21
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$612
• Net cashflow: $-15/mo
• Annual: $-174/yr
• Cap rate: 6.25%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.16%
• DSCR: 0.99
• 1% rule: 0.75%
• Cash to close: $108,640

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $388k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-15 ($-174/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $385k (0.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $291k (24.9% below list).
• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $291k (24.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#27 in GA, #3,621 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, employment A, commute A-; Watch: cost of living C-, amenities F.
• Cobb County (suburban): math 39% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #25 of 174 in GA (top 14%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Birney Elementary School (math 15% / reading 17%, grade F, #971 of 1,228 statewide, top 79%, 688 students, 83% FRL); Floyd Middle School (math 17% / reading 24%, grade F, #345 of 470 statewide, top 74%, 845 students, 80% FRL); Osborne High School (math 9% / reading 12%, grade F, #348 of 424 statewide, top 83%, 2,772 students, 75% FRL) — zoned schools average 79% FRL vs 39% district-wide (40 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 16% at this address vs 42% district-wide (-26 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Cobb County average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.5%/yr); 193 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 54% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,625 units permitted in Cobb County in 2024 (389 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Cobb County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 3.5% in Smyrna — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $2,913/mo this rent would consume 52% of the median local household income ($68k/yr) (locally 1368% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.