1306 Dukes Dr

Tarpon Springs, FL 34689

$200,000C

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,070 sqft · Built 1982 · SingleFamily · Active · 1 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,121/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,049
• Tax + insurance: −$413
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$445
• Net cashflow: $213/mo
• Annual: $2,558/yr
• Cap rate: 7.57%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.57%
• DSCR: 1.20
• 1% rule: 1.06%
• Cash to close: $56,000

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $213 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $200k).
• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#502 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living A; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Pinellas (suburban): math 51% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #31 of 73 in FL (top 42%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Sunset Hills Elementary School (math 72% / reading 72%, grade A-, #288 of 2,144 statewide, top 15%, 451 students, 52% FRL); Tarpon Springs Middle School (math 59% / reading 61%, grade B, #135 of 571 statewide, top 24%, 644 students, 50% FRL); Tarpon Springs High School (math 30% / reading 47%, grade F, #321 of 667 statewide, top 49%, 1,139 students, 46% FRL) — zoned schools at 49% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.2%/yr); 404 active listings in the ZIP; 35 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,676 units permitted in Pinellas County in 2024 (1,422 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Pinellas County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• Current owner paid $56k; list at $200k implies a 260% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→27/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 7.6% vs local median 3.3% in Tarpon Springs — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($75k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.