1306 Dukes Dr · Tarpon Springs, FL 34689

$200,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,070 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 1 Days on market

Built 1982 7,719 sqft lot Est $279k · 28% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.1/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.0/10.0
• 1% rule +5.6/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Opportunity awaits in Tarpon Springs! This block construction 3-bedroom, 2-bath home sits on a large irregular lot in a non-HOA neighborhood and offers plenty of potential for the right buyer. The home is in need of renovation and is being sold with no power or water currently on, so buyers should plan accordingly. The AC is approximately 4 years old, and the traditional floor plan provides a solid starting point for updates, redesign, or investment use. The spacious yard offers room for outdoor living, gardening, or possibly a future pool. Located in an X500 flood zone, this property is just minutes from downtown Tarpon Springs, the historic Sponge Docks, Gulf beaches, shopping, dining, an

Key facts

• Spacious yard
• Non hoa neighborhood
• Large irregular lot

Tags

• BLOCK CONSTRUCTION
• LARGE IRREGULAR LOT
• NON HOA NEIGHBORHOOD
• SPACIOUS YARD
• MINUTES FROM DOWNTOWN
• HISTORIC SPONGE DOCKS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property type: Residential - Single Family Residence; Total rooms: 5; Unfurnished; Living area reported as 1,070 square feet (public records); Lot size reported as approximately 0.18 acres (about 717 m²)
• Financial info: Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: No HOA association indicated; Pets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway; Attached 1-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Cable available; Electricity available; Phone available
• Home design: Single family residence; One story; Faces south; Fixer condition
• Construction: Block construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built area approximately 1,376 square feet
• Exterior features: City limits lot; Located in county; Irregular, sloped lot; Paved public road access; Lot approximately 0.18 acres

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Range; Refrigerator; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Other
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans
• Laundry & utility: Laundry in garage

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $213 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $200k).
• Cap rate 7.6% vs local median 3.3% in Tarpon Springs — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#502 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living A; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Pinellas (suburban): math 51% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #31 of 73 in FL (top 42%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Sunset Hills Elementary School (math 72% / reading 72%, grade A-, #288 of 2,144 statewide, top 15%, 451 students, 52% FRL); Tarpon Springs Middle School (math 59% / reading 61%, grade B, #135 of 571 statewide, top 24%, 644 students, 50% FRL); Tarpon Springs High School (math 30% / reading 47%, grade F, #321 of 667 statewide, top 49%, 1,139 students, 46% FRL) — zoned schools at 49% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.2%/yr); 404 active listings in the ZIP; 35 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,676 units permitted in Pinellas County in 2024 (1,422 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($75k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pinellas County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $56k; list at $200k implies a 260% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→27/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $200,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.06% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.57%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.57%
• DSCR: 1.20
• GRM: 7.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $279,270
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1308 Dukes Dr	0.01mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,070 (0%)	9mo	$250,000	$234	87
742 Arthurs Ct	0.22mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,168 (+9%)	3mo	$363,000	$311	67
732 Lighthouse Dr	0.37mi	2/2.0	1,190 (+11%)	1mo	$470,000	$395	63
19 Windrush Bay Dr	0.68mi	2/2.0	1,080 (+1%)	4mo	$260,000	$241	63
787 Arthurs Ct	0.23mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,205 (+13%)	3mo	$294,000	$244	61
26 Windrush Bay Dr	0.72mi	2/2.0	1,080 (+1%)	5mo	$256,000	$237	60
754 Lighthouse Dr	0.41mi	2/2.0	1,190 (+11%)	7mo	$310,000	$261	57
1315 Gulfview Woods Ln	0.48mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,172 (+10%)	2mo	$350,000	$299	55
1107 Goshen Rd	0.41mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,208 (+13%)	1mo	$185,700	$154	54
13 Windrush Bay Dr	0.72mi	2/2.0	1,035 (-3%)	10mo	$270,000	$261	52
1008 Stonefence Way	0.49mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,152 (+8%)	15mo	$305,000	$265	47
1011 Coldstream Ct	0.53mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,225 (+14%)	2mo	$330,775	$270	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.55×
• Total profit: $-24,964
• Equity at exit: $29,821

10-year hold

• IRR: -9.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.50×
• Total profit: $-27,941
• Equity at exit: $17,292

Cash invested: $56,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34689

• Rents YoY: -1.2%
• Active inventory: 404
• Price-to-rent: 7.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,121 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,049
• Tax from tax record: −$330 /mo · $3,959/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$445
• Net cashflow: $213

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,851

Max offer price $200,000

Occupancy floor 85%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $326	-5% $270	+0% $213	+5% $157	+10% $100
Rent	-10% $46	-5% $129	+0% $213	+5% $297	+10% $381
Rate	-1.0pp $314	-0.5pp $264	base $213	+0.5pp $161	+1.0pp $109

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $50,000
• Closing costs: $6,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 35 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
787 Arthurs Ct Tarpon Springs, FL	3.0	2.0	1225	$2,295	$1.87	6d	1	0.22mi
300 S Florida Ave Unit 100K Tarpon Springs, FL	2.0	2.0	1000	$2,150	$2.15	26d	1	0.45mi
504 S Florida Ave #222 Tarpon Springs, FL	2.0	2.0	1490	$1,895	$1.27	6d	1	0.47mi
1500 Sunset Rd Unit C4 Tarpon Springs, FL	2.0	1.5	1170	$2,100	$1.79	26d	1	0.65mi
817 Margo St Tarpon Springs, FL	2.0	1.0	792	$1,600	$2.02	26d	1	0.67mi
1669 Seascape Cir #1669 Tarpon Springs, FL	2.0	2.0	1070	$2,200	$2.06	26d	1	0.76mi
514 Windrush Bay Dr Tarpon Springs, FL	2.0	2.0	980	$1,800	$1.84	23d	1	0.80mi
602 Windrush Bay Dr Tarpon Springs, FL	2.0	2.0	980	$1,900	$1.94	26d	1	0.80mi
610 Windrush Bay Dr Unit 226 Tarpon Springs, FL	2.0	1.5	930	$1,750	$1.88	19d	1	0.80mi
514 Windrush Bay Dr #514 Tarpon Springs, FL	2.0	2.0	980	$1,800	$1.84	26d	1	0.81mi
428 Windrush Bay Dr Unit 428 Tarpon Springs, FL	2.0	1.0	930	$1,700	$1.83	0d	1	0.86mi
621 Windrush Bay Dr Unit 621 Tarpon Springs, FL	2.0	1.5	930	$2,500	$2.69	21d	1	0.86mi
723 Sunset Dr Tarpon Springs, FL	3.0	2.0	1374	$2,290	$1.67	14d	1	0.86mi
105 S Spring Blvd Unit 10 Tarpon Springs, FL	1.0	1.0	700	$1,350	$1.93	26d	1	0.89mi
412 Riverside Dr Tarpon Springs, FL	2.0	1.0	900	$2,300	$2.56	6d	1	0.90mi
329 Moorings Cove Dr Tarpon Springs, FL	2.0	2.0	1020	$1,700	$1.67	22d	1	0.90mi
1805 Mariner Dr #52 Tarpon Springs, FL	2.0	2.0	1065	$2,000	$1.88	23d	1	1.05mi
1900 Whispering Way Tarpon Springs, FL	2.0	2.0	1173	$2,750	$2.34	5d	1	1.07mi
328 Mariner Dr Unit 328 Tarpon Springs, FL	1.0	2.0	968	$2,100	$2.17	6d	1	1.10mi
238 Mariner Dr Tarpon Springs, FL	1.0	2.0	968	$2,000	$2.07	23d	1	1.10mi
238 Mariner Dr Tarpon Springs, FL	1.0	1.5	968	$2,000	$2.07	19d	1	1.10mi
1806 Mariner Dr #214 Tarpon Springs, FL	2.0	2.0	1150	$2,100	$1.83	26d	1	1.10mi
1185 S Pinellas Ave Tarpon Springs, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1013	$2,154	$2.12	0d	20	1.19mi
211 Timberlane Dr Palm Harbor, FL	2.0	1.0	1422	$2,500	$1.76	5d	1	1.21mi
1814 Mariner Dr #159 Tarpon Springs, FL	2.0	2.0	1065	$2,000	$1.88	16d	1	1.24mi
1813 Mariner Dr #151 Tarpon Springs, FL	2.0	2.0	1065	$2,500	$2.35	6d	1	1.24mi
310 Westwinds Dr Palm Harbor, FL	2.0	1.0	1196	$2,500	$2.09	19d	1	1.29mi
316 E Boyer St Tarpon Springs, FL	3.0	1.0	936	$1,749	$1.87	26d	1	1.37mi
326 S Grosse Ave Apt 2 Tarpon Springs, FL	3.0	2.0	1130	$2,098	$1.86	26d	1	1.37mi
320 S Grosse Ave Tarpon Springs, FL	3.0	1.0	936	$1,749	$1.87	26d	1	1.39mi
103 E Park St Tarpon Springs, FL	3.0	1.0	999	$3,000	$3.00	26d	1	1.41mi
401 E Boyer St Tarpon Springs, FL	3.0	2.0	1130	$2,299	$2.03	26d	1	1.42mi
401 E Boyer St Unit 3 Tarpon Springs, FL	3.0	2.0	1130	$2,099	$1.86	26d	1	1.42mi
401 E Boyer St Tarpon Springs, FL	3.0	2.0	1130	$2,099	$1.86	3d	1	1.43mi
1990 Carolina Ave Tarpon Springs, FL	3.0	1.0	960	$1,250	$1.30	23d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-06-18
   remarks 699-char remark
2. 2026-06-18
   listed $200,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,959 · $330/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,959 · $330/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (shaded) · 24% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 27 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,447
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,203
• − Property taxes: −$3,959
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,036
• − Management: −$2,036
• − Depreciation: −$5,818
• Taxable loss: −$605
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$145
• After-tax cash flow: $2,703/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pinellas
• NCES district ID: 1201560
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $46,270
• Composite: 43.27/100
• National rank: #3046
• State rank: #31 of 73 in FL

Livability — Tarpon Springs

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #502
• US rank: #9244

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime B- Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Tarpon Springs, FL
• County: Pinellas County · 939,478 people
• City population: 27,324
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 27,324
• Household income: $74,854
• Rent vs Own: 18.5% rent · 81.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 721.0

Population outlook (Pinellas County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,027,532 people
• By 2030: 1,063,586 · +3.5%
• By 2040: 1,125,020 · +9.5%
• By 2050: 1,168,637 · +13.7%
• By 2075: 1,265,188 · +23.1%
• By 2100: 1,260,357 · +22.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 7% Black 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Jamaica, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Other Indo-European 6% Spanish 6% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pinellas

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+5.2) · D 46.9% · R 52.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -13.5pp toward R · 2008: 8.3pp · 2024: -5.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+5.2 2020: D+0.2 2016: R+1.1 2012: D+5.6 2008: D+8.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -300.96%
• Current HPI: 303.7434
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.16%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+80.2% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-18 Listed $200,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1999-04-14 Sold (Public Records) $55,500 Public Records
• 1990-09-19 Sold (Public Records) $40,800 Public Records
• 1988-12-01 Sold (Public Records) $46,900 Public Records
• 1985-10-01 Sold (Public Records) $111,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+7.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,959 · +4.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.