491 Cty Rte 46

Kinderhook, NY 12173

$245,000C

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,152 sqft · Built 1945 · SingleFamily · Pending · 26 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,099/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,285
• Tax + insurance: −$351
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$441
• Net cashflow: $23/mo
• Annual: $272/yr
• Cap rate: 6.40%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.40%
• DSCR: 1.02
• 1% rule: 0.86%
• Cash to close: $68,600

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $245k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $23 ($272/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $210k (14.3% below list).
• It's been on market 26 days — a 2% lower offer ($241k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $210k (14.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $26k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $24k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#754 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, employment A; Watch: schools D+, cost of living D, amenities F.
• Kinderhook Central School District (rural): math 49% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #294 of 590 in NY (top 50%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Watch-outs: built in 1945 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 22 active listings in the ZIP; 136 units permitted in Columbia County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Columbia County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 3 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $183k; 34% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $69k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$42k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 0.8% in Kinderhook — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1945 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.