491 Cty Rte 46 · Kinderhook, NY 12173

$245,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,152 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 26 Days on market

Built 1945 0.25 ac lot Est $353k · 30% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +13.8/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• DSCR +4.2/10.0
• 1% rule +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Charming Cape in Stuyvesant! A great place for full time living or weekend pleasure. Hard wood floors, formal dining area w/ built in cabinets and pellet stove, open living and dining rooms, 1st. floor Bedroom , updated first floor bath, cozy eat in kitchen. The second floor bedroom is bright and sunny also HW floors and plenty of closet space with room to add 2nd bath. New roof 2017, Newer Furnace, Gravel driveway, Detached garage with a spacious loft. Large fenced back yard with lots of room for gardening, pets and children to play. .. .. Only 10 min to Hudson and 30 min to the Berkshires, 21/2 hrs. to NYC.

Key facts

• Built-in cabinetry
• Updated full bath
• One-level living

Tags

• HARDWOOD FLOORS
• OPEN LIVING AND DINING AREA
• BUILT-IN CABINETRY
• COZY EAT-IN KITCHEN
• UPDATED FULL BATH
• ONE-LEVEL LIVING

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Garage with approximately 1.5 car capacity; About 6 off-street open parking spaces; Gravel parking area; Storage and workshop space in the garage
• Utilities: Private well water; Septic tank; Electric service with 150–200+ amp capacity and circuit breakers; Cable and phone available; Propane available; Electricity and sewer connected; Water connected
• Home design: Single-family house; One and one-half levels; Main entry at the front door; Has a view
• Construction: Aluminum siding and frame construction with plaster; Asphalt shingle roof; Block foundation; Built prior to current listing (year built not provided)
• Exterior features: Private yard; Front porch; Rain gutters; Barn and additional garage on the property; Perimeter wood fencing enclosing the back yard

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Refrigerator; Freezer; Water heater
• Bedrooms: Total of 6 rooms (includes bedrooms and living spaces)
• Flooring: Wood; Tile; Linoleum
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Baseboard heating (electric and oil); Ceiling fan(s); No central air conditioning
• Interior features: Built-in bookcases; Ceiling fans; High-speed internet; Insulated double-pane windows with screens; Full unfinished basement with interior entry and sump pump
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer; Laundry located in the basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $245k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $23 ($272/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $210k (14.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $210k (14.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 0.8% in Kinderhook — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#754 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, employment A; Watch: schools D+, cost of living D, amenities F.
• Kinderhook Central School District (rural): math 49% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #294 of 590 in NY (top 50%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 22 active listings in the ZIP; 136 units permitted in Columbia County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $26k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $24k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Columbia County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $69k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$42k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 26 days — a 2% lower offer ($241k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $183k; 34% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1945 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $209,934 (14.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1945 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.86% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.40%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.40%
• DSCR: 1.02
• GRM: 9.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $352,512
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1760 State Route 9	0.23mi	2/1.5	1,240 (+8%)	5mo	$380,000	$306	70
387 County Route 46	0.48mi	2/1.5	1,260 (+9%)	6mo	$350,000	$278	55

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 24.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.97×
• Total profit: $134,876
• Equity at exit: $220,715

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.7%
• Equity multiple: 6.77×
• Total profit: $396,043
• Equity at exit: $475,981

Cash invested: $68,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12173

• Home prices YoY: 8.6%
• Active inventory: 22
• Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,099 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,285
• Tax from tax record: −$249 /mo · $2,987/yr
• Insurance: −$102
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$441
• Net cashflow: $23

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,071

Max offer price $245,000

Occupancy floor 94%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $61,250
• Closing costs: $7,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-05-19
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-30
   historical Active Under Contract
3. 2026-04-23
   listed $245,000 Active
4. 2021-12-13
   soldstatus $183,000
5. 2021-11-08
   soldstatus $187,000 616-char remark

   Show marketing remark (616 chars)

   Charming Cape in Stuyvesant! A great place for full time living or weekend pleasure. Hard wood floors, formal dining area w/ built in cabinets and pellet stove, open living and dining rooms, 1st. floor Bedroom , updated first floor bath, cozy eat in kitchen. The second floor bedroom is bright and sunny also HW floors and plenty of closet space with room to add 2nd bath. New roof 2017, Newer Furnace, Gravel driveway, Detached garage with a spacious loft. Large fenced back yard with lots of room for gardening, pets and children to play. .. .. Only 10 min to Hudson and 30 min to the Berkshires, 21/2 hrs. to NYC.

6. 2021-09-08
   listed $169,900 616-char remark

   Show marketing remark (616 chars)

   Charming Cape in Stuyvesant! A great place for full time living or weekend pleasure. Hard wood floors, formal dining area w/ built in cabinets and pellet stove, open living and dining rooms, 1st. floor Bedroom , updated first floor bath, cozy eat in kitchen. The second floor bedroom is bright and sunny also HW floors and plenty of closet space with room to add 2nd bath. New roof 2017, Newer Furnace, Gravel driveway, Detached garage with a spacious loft. Large fenced back yard with lots of room for gardening, pets and children to play. .. .. Only 10 min to Hudson and 30 min to the Berkshires, 21/2 hrs. to NYC.

7. 2019-03-01
   soldstatus $112,500 692-char remark

   Show marketing remark (692 chars)

   Enjoy country living in this charming yet original 1945 Cape located in Stuyvesant, NY A well maintained home w/ a formal dining area w/ built in cabinets, cozy living room or den. , 1st. floor BR , recently remodeled first floor BA. w/ beautiful hardwood floors throughout. The second floor bedroom is bright and sunny also HW floors and plenty of closet space. New roof 2017,New Furnace, new porch stairs, & dry basement Detached garage with a spacious loft offers many possibilities. Both Front and back yards offer lots of room for gardening, pets and children to play. .. .. (Furniture is included) Located only 10 min to Hudson and 30 min to the Berkshires, 2 hrs. to NYC

8. 2019-03-01
   soldstatus $119,250

   Show marketing remark (692 chars)

   Enjoy country living in this charming yet original 1945 Cape located in Stuyvesant, NY A well maintained home w/ a formal dining area w/ built in cabinets, cozy living room or den. , 1st. floor BR , recently remodeled first floor BA. w/ beautiful hardwood floors throughout. The second floor bedroom is bright and sunny also HW floors and plenty of closet space. New roof 2017,New Furnace, new porch stairs, & dry basement Detached garage with a spacious loft offers many possibilities. Both Front and back yards offer lots of room for gardening, pets and children to play. .. .. (Furniture is included) Located only 10 min to Hudson and 30 min to the Berkshires, 2 hrs. to NYC

9. 2018-10-02
   listed $124,000 692-char remark

   Show marketing remark (692 chars)

   Enjoy country living in this charming yet original 1945 Cape located in Stuyvesant, NY A well maintained home w/ a formal dining area w/ built in cabinets, cozy living room or den. , 1st. floor BR , recently remodeled first floor BA. w/ beautiful hardwood floors throughout. The second floor bedroom is bright and sunny also HW floors and plenty of closet space. New roof 2017,New Furnace, new porch stairs, & dry basement Detached garage with a spacious loft offers many possibilities. Both Front and back yards offer lots of room for gardening, pets and children to play. .. .. (Furniture is included) Located only 10 min to Hudson and 30 min to the Berkshires, 2 hrs. to NYC

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,987 · $249/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,564 · $297/mo
• Expected delta: +$577/yr (+$48/mo · 19.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 9% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,192
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,724
• − Property taxes: −$2,987
• − Insurance: −$1,225
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,015
• − Management: −$2,015
• − Depreciation: −$7,127
• Taxable loss: −$3,901
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$936
• After-tax cash flow: $1,209/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Kinderhook Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3615210
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $68,409
• Composite: 47.82/100
• National rank: #2223
• State rank: #294 of 590 in NY

Livability — Kinderhook

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #754
• US rank: #14430

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D Crime A+ Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 1,963
• Population (ZIP): 2,040

Population outlook (Columbia County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 58,662 people
• By 2030: 56,557 · -3.6%
• By 2040: 51,324 · -12.5%
• By 2050: 45,790 · -21.9%
• By 2075: 35,232 · -39.9%
• By 2100: 25,846 · -55.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 2% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 12% Romanian 6% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 8%

Political lean MEDSL · Columbia

• 2024 margin: D (+14.7) · D 57.4% · R 42.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.3pp toward D · 2008: 13.4pp · 2024: 14.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+14.7 2020: D+16.7 2016: D+1.4 2012: D+11.7 2008: D+13.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 31.11%
• Current HPI: 393.6279
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+97.6% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Pending — HVCRMLS
• 2026-04-30 Contingent — HVCRMLS
• 2026-04-23 Listed $245,000 HVCRMLS
• 2021-12-13 Sold (Public Records) $183,000 Public Records
• 2021-11-08 Sold (MLS) $187,000 HVCRMLS
• 2021-09-08 Listed $169,900 HVCRMLS
• 2019-03-01 Sold (Public Records) $119,250 Public Records
• 2019-03-01 Sold (MLS) $112,500 HVCRMLS
• 2018-10-02 Listed $124,000 HVCRMLS

Property tax history

+1.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,987 · -4.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.