Garland Plan

Victoria, TX 77904

$344,900D-

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,152 sqft · Built — · SingleFamily · Active · 249 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,865/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,885
• Tax + insurance: −$599
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$602
• Net cashflow: $-221/mo
• Annual: $-2,657/yr
• Cap rate: 5.55%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.64%
• DSCR: 0.88
• 1% rule: 0.80%
• Cash to close: $100,660

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $345k. Condition is rated excellent.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-221 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $327k (5.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $286k (16.9% below list).
• It's been on market 249 days — a 12% lower offer ($304k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $286k (16.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#309 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Victoria ISD (urban): math 24% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #645 of 826 in TX (top 78%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: C O Chandler El (math 21% / reading 32%, grade F, #2,927 of 4,322 statewide, top 68%, 474 students, 82% FRL); Howell Middle (math 28% / reading 37%, grade F, #947 of 1,662 statewide, top 58%, 757 students, 68% FRL); Victoria East H S (math 23% / reading 38%, grade F, #1,085 of 1,632 statewide, top 67%, 1,845 students, 65% FRL).
• Market conditions: 324 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 43 units permitted in Victoria County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Victoria County population projected at +34% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 3.4% in Victoria — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($83k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 249 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.