Garland Plan · Victoria, TX 77904

$344,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,152 sqft · SingleFamily · 203 Days on market

Excellent condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• DSCR +3.2/10.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to Salem Crossing, a new home community in the charming city of Victoria. This community offers several single-story floor plans, ranging from 2,045 to 2,608 square feet, with 4 to 5 bedrooms, 2 to 3 bathrooms, and up to 3-car garages. Front yards in Salem Crossing have been thoughtfully landscaped with a low-maintenance design, with spacious lot sizes. But as you step inside the home, you'll immediately notice the attention to detail and high-quality finishes throughout. The kitchen boasts stainless-steel appliances, making it a chef's dream. Homes in this neighborhood also come equipped with smart home technology, allowing you to easily control your home. Whether it's adjusting the temperature or turning on the lights, convenience is at your fingertips. Salem Crossing provides easy access to major roadways and is conveniently located near downtown Victoria. This community offers direct access to Zach Lentz Parkway and is situated east of Interstate 77, and is conveniently located near restaurants, grocery stores, and other amenities. Salem Crossing is located in the Victoria East High School zoning area. With its spacious layout, modern features, and prime location, Salem Crossing is truly a rare find. Don't miss out on the opportunity to make it your own. Schedule a tour today!

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Listed 202 days

Tags

• SINGLE STORY FLOOR PLANS
• LOW MAINTENANCE DESIGN
• HIGH QUALITY FINISHES
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• SMART HOME TECHNOLOGY
• EASY ACCESS TO MAJOR ROADWAYS

🏗️ New construction. The $344,900 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $349,000.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $345k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-149 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $327k (5.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $286k (16.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $286k (16.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 3.5% in Victoria — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#309 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Victoria ISD (urban): math 24% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #645 of 826 in TX (top 78%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: C O Chandler El (math 21% / reading 32%, grade F, #2,927 of 4,322 statewide, top 68%, 474 students, 82% FRL); Howell Middle (math 28% / reading 37%, grade F, #947 of 1,662 statewide, top 58%, 757 students, 68% FRL); Victoria East H S (math 23% / reading 38%, grade F, #1,085 of 1,632 statewide, top 67%, 1,845 students, 65% FRL).
• Market conditions: 274 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 43 units permitted in Victoria County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($83k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Victoria County population projected at +34% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 203 days — a 12% lower offer ($304k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $286,458 (16.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 203 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.78%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.83%
• DSCR: 0.92
• GRM: 10.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $349,000
• List price: $344,900
• Delta: -1.17%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 19 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
104 Beacon Ln	0.11mi	4/2.0	2,180 (+1%)	4mo	$397,500	$182	89
506 Town Hall Ln	0.07mi	4/2.0	2,045 (-5%)	3mo	$363,430	$178	86
103 Beacon Ln	0.08mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,099 (-2%)	6mo	$429,000	$204	82
509 Town Hall Ln	0.04mi	4/2.0	2,329 (+8%)	3mo	$392,787	$169	82
301 Salem Crossing Dr	0.10mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,062 (-4%)	6mo	$410,000	$199	74
206 Beacon	0.17mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,001 (-7%)	3mo	$459,000	$229	73
206 Windy Way Dr	0.44mi	4/2.0	2,330 (+8%)	0mo	$374,000	$161	66
204 Crosswind Dr	0.46mi	4/2.0	2,321 (+8%)	2mo	$362,000	$156	63
304 Windy Way Dr	0.36mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,865 (-13%)	0mo	$259,000	$139	56

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.32×
• Total profit: $-65,990
• Equity at exit: $52,037

10-year hold

• IRR: -12.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.29×
• Total profit: $-69,494
• Equity at exit: $30,175

Cash invested: $97,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Seller's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 7 active · 18 under contract
• Months of supply: 2.3 mo (43%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $362,900 ($155/sqft)
• Median days on market: 149 d
• This list price: 29% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +4.9% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77904

• Home prices YoY: -34.7%
• Active inventory: 274
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,865 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,830
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$436 /mo · $5,235/yr
• Insurance: −$145
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$602
• Net cashflow: $-149

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,053

Max offer price $327,462

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $92	-5% $-28	+0% $-149	+5% $-269	+10% $-390
Rent	-10% $-375	-5% $-262	+0% $-149	+5% $-36	+10% $77
Rate	-1.0pp $27	-0.5pp $-60	base $-149	+0.5pp $-239	+1.0pp $-331

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $87,250
• Closing costs: $10,470
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
508 Town Hall Ln Victoria, TX	3.0	2.0	2032	$3,750	$1.85	93d	1	0.08mi
111 Lancelot St Unit 2 Victoria, TX	3.0	2.0	2092	$1,650	$0.79	93d	1	1.03mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $344,900 Active 203 DOM
2. 2026-08-07
   days on market $344,900 Active 202 DOM
3. 2026-08-06
   days on market $344,900 Active 201 DOM
4. 2026-08-05
   days on market $344,900 Active 200 DOM
5. 2026-08-04
   days on market $344,900 Active 199 DOM
6. 2026-08-03
   days on market $344,900 Active 198 DOM
7. 2026-07-31
   days on market $344,900 Active 195 DOM
8. 2026-07-29
   days on market $344,900 Active 193 DOM
9. 2026-07-27
   days on market $344,900 Active 191 DOM
10. 2026-07-25
    days on market $344,900 Active 189 DOM
11. 2026-07-23
    days on market $344,900 Active 187 DOM
12. 2026-07-22
    days on market $344,900 Active 186 DOM
13. 2026-07-21
    days on market $344,900 Active 185 DOM
14. 2026-07-18
    days on market $344,900 Active 182 DOM
15. 2026-07-16
    days on market $344,900 Active 180 DOM
16. 2026-07-16
    days on market $344,900 Active 179 DOM
17. 2026-07-14
    days on market $344,900 Active 178 DOM
18. 2026-07-13
    days on market $344,900 Active 177 DOM
19. 2026-07-12
    days on market $344,900 Active 176 DOM
20. 2026-07-11
    days on market $344,900 Active 175 DOM
21. 2026-07-10
    days on market $344,900 Active 174 DOM
22. 2026-07-09
    days on market $344,900 Active 173 DOM
23. 2026-07-08
    days on market $344,900 Active 172 DOM
24. 2026-07-07
    days on market $344,900 Active 171 DOM
25. 2026-07-06
    days on market $344,900 Active 170 DOM
26. 2026-07-05
    days on market $344,900 Active 169 DOM
27. 2026-07-04
    days on market $344,900 Active 168 DOM
28. 2026-07-03
    days on market $344,900 Active 167 DOM
29. 2026-07-02
    days on market $344,900 Active 166 DOM
30. 2026-07-01
    days on market $344,900 Active 165 DOM
31. 2026-06-30
    days on market $344,900 Active 164 DOM
32. 2026-06-29
    days on market $344,900 Active 163 DOM
33. 2026-06-28
    days on market $344,900 Active 162 DOM
34. 2026-06-28
    days on market $344,900 Active 161 DOM
35. 2026-06-27
    days on market $344,900 Active 160 DOM
36. 2026-06-26
    days on market $344,900 Active 159 DOM
37. 2026-06-23
    days on market $344,900 Active 156 DOM
38. 2026-06-21
    days on market $344,900 Active 155 DOM
39. 2026-06-19
    days on market $344,900 Active 153 DOM
40. 2026-06-18
    days on market $344,900 Active 152 DOM
41. 2026-06-17
    days on market $344,900 Active 151 DOM
42. 2026-06-16
    days on market $344,900 Active 150 DOM
43. 2026-06-15
    days on market $344,900 Active 149 DOM
44. 2026-06-14
    days on market $344,900 Active 147 DOM
45. 2026-06-13
    days on market $344,900 Active 146 DOM
46. 2026-06-10
    days on market $344,900 Active 144 DOM
47. 2026-06-09
    days on market $344,900 Active 143 DOM
48. 2026-06-08
    days on market $344,900 Active 142 DOM
49. 2026-06-07
    days on market $344,900 Active 141 DOM
50. 2026-06-03
    days on market $344,900 Active 137 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $34,375
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,549
• − Property taxes: −$5,235
• − Insurance: −$1,745
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,750
• − Management: −$2,750
• − Depreciation: −$10,153
• Taxable loss: −$7,807
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,874
• After-tax cash flow: $88/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This single-family home in Salem Crossing, Victoria, TX, is in excellent condition with no visible repairs or maintenance needed. It offers smart home technology and a well-maintained exterior, making it a move-in-ready property with high resale and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Smart home technology — Enhances convenience and appeal ↑
• Both Smart lighting system — Improves energy efficiency and ambiance ↑
• Both Smart thermostat — Saves energy and enhances comfort ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 30/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary C O Chandler El F TX #2,927/4,322 Nat'l #29,439/41,679 Middle Howell Middle F TX #947/1,662 Nat'l #8,188/14,009 High Victoria East H S F TX #1,085/1,632 Nat'l #10,882/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Victoria ISD
• NCES district ID: 4844150
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 33% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $50,534
• Composite: 24.98/100
• National rank: #7562
• State rank: #645 of 826 in TX

B Composite livability gradescore 71/100

Livability — Victoria

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #309
• US rank: #6960

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Victoria, TX
• County: Victoria County · 106,119 people
• City population: 69,915
• Metro: Victoria, TX
• Population (ZIP): 30,061
• Household income: $83,130
• Rent vs Own: 31.6% rent · 68.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 17% of renters

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Population outlook (Victoria County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 106,119 people
• By 2030: 113,161 · +6.6%
• By 2040: 127,402 · +20.1%
• By 2050: 141,953 · +33.8%
• By 2075: 179,410 · +69.1%
• By 2100: 200,127 · +88.6%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 56% Hispanic / Latino 35% Two or more races 20% Black 4% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 29%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 12% Other Indo-European 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Victoria

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+42.6) · D 28.4% · R 71.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -9.0pp toward R · 2008: -33.6pp · 2024: -42.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+42.6 2020: R+38.0 2016: R+40.0 2012: R+37.8 2008: R+33.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -75.51%
• Current HPI: 142.2501
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Victoria, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-01-17 Listed $344,900 Zillow