151 Lincoln Ave

Mineola, NY 11501

$870,000C-

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,786 sqft · Built 1913 · MultiFamily · Active · 202 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $7,348/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$4,562
• Tax + insurance: −$1,277
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,543
• Net cashflow: $-34/mo
• Annual: $-412/yr
• Cap rate: 6.25%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.17%
• DSCR: 0.99
• 1% rule: 0.84%
• Cash to close: $243,600

Investor read

• This is a 2 × 2-bed/1.0-bath units multifamily listed at $870k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-34 ($-412/yr) — negative. Per door: $-17/mo.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $864k (0.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $735k (15.5% below list).
• It's been on market 202 days — a 12% lower offer ($766k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $735k (15.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $6k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $26k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#58 in NY, #868 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, amenities A+, commute A+; Watch: cost of living F.
• Mineola Union Free School District (suburban): math 71% / reading 69% proficiency, ranked #113 of 590 in NY (top 19%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 18% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Watch-outs: built in 1913 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.9%/yr); 95 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 11d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 824 units permitted in Nassau County in 2024 (153 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Nassau County population projected at +7% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 3.7% in Mineola — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $7,348/mo this rent would consume 64% of the median local household income ($138k/yr) (locally 489% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 202 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
• What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
• Built in 1913 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?