151 Lincoln Ave · Mineola, NY 11501

$870,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,786 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 199 Days on market

Built 1913 5,000 sqft lot $487/sqft · 35% below area Est $1341k · 35% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +13.1/30.0
• Schools +6.3/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• DSCR +3.9/10.0
• Rent growth +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 2 units. confirmed

Listing remarks MLS

This 2 Family Style Home Features 4 Bedrooms, 2 Full Baths, 2 Kitchens & 2 Car Garage. The information provided is estimated to the best of our abilities at this time.

Key facts

• 5,000 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1913

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2 × 2-bed/1.0-bath units multifamily listed at $870k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-36 ($-431/yr) — negative. Per door: $-18/mo.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $864k (0.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $735k (15.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $735k (15.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 3.7% in Mineola — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#58 in NY, #868 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, amenities A+, commute A+; Watch: cost of living F.
• Mineola Union Free School District (suburban): math 71% / reading 69% proficiency, ranked #113 of 590 in NY (top 19%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 18% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.9%/yr); 95 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 11d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 824 units permitted in Nassau County in 2024 (153 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $7,346/mo this rent would consume 64% of the median local household income ($138k/yr) (locally 489% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $6k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $26k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Nassau County population projected at +7% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 199 days — a 12% lower offer ($766k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1913 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $734,600 (15.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 199 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
4. What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
5. Built in 1913 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
6. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
7. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
8. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.24%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.18%
• DSCR: 0.99
• GRM: 9.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $1,341,032
• List price: $870,000
• Delta: -35.12%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
169 Lincoln Ave	0.04mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,743 (-2%)	8mo	$865,000	$496	82
72 Sheridan Ave	0.73mi	4/2.0	1,586 (-11%)	20mo	$935,000	$590	30

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.88% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.47×
• Total profit: $-129,103
• Equity at exit: $129,720

10-year hold

• IRR: -3.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.77×
• Total profit: $-54,982
• Equity at exit: $75,222

Cash invested: $243,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11501

• Rents YoY: 4.9%
• Active inventory: 95
• Price-to-rent: 19.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $7,346 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$4,562
• Tax from tax record: −$914 /mo · $10,972/yr
• Insurance: −$362
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,543
• Net cashflow: $-36

Break-even live

Break-even rent $7,391

Max offer price $863,661

Occupancy floor 95%

2-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 2× units	2	1	$7,346
Total (2 units)			$7,346

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $217,500
• Closing costs: $26,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 13 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
184 Cleveland Ave Mineola, NY	3.0	1.5	1473	$4,700	$3.19	44d	1	0.12mi
159 Harrison Ave Unit C Mineola, NY	3.0	2.0	1820	$5,300	$2.91	3d	1	0.17mi
131 Roslyn Rd Unit 1st Floor Mineola, NY	3.0	2.0	2200	$4,100	$1.86	1d	1	0.28mi
50 Albertson Pl Mineola, NY	3.0	2.0	1525	$4,750	$3.11	1d	1	0.49mi
94 Millington Pl Mineola, NY	4.0	2.5	1590	$5,500	$3.46	1d	1	0.52mi
80 Old Country Rd Mineola, NY	3.0	2.0	1400	$3,200	$2.29	25d	1	0.62mi
220 Pershing Pkwy Mineola, NY	4.0	2.0	1550	$4,750	$3.06	1d	1	0.62mi
367 Columbus Pkwy Mineola, NY	3.0	3.0	1611	$5,350	$3.32	44d	1	0.68mi
191 Raff Ave Mineola, NY	3.0	2.0	1500	$4,500	$3.00	1d	1	0.69mi
18 Prospect St Williston Park, NY	3.0	2.5	1300	$4,800	$3.69	44d	1	0.78mi
74 Mulberry Ave Garden City, NY	4.0	2.5	2102	$7,500	$3.57	10d	1	0.96mi
54 Camden Pl New Hyde Park, NY	3.0	3.0	2210	$4,900	$2.22	24d	1	1.14mi
42 Rhodes Dr Unit House New Hyde Park, NY	5.0	2.5	2600	$4,950	$1.90	22d	1	1.42mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $870,000 Active 199 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $870,000 Active 198 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $870,000 Active 197 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $870,000 Active 196 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $870,000 Active 194 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $870,000 Active 193 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $870,000 Active 190 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $870,000 Active 189 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $870,000 Active 188 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $870,000 Active 185 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $870,000 Active 184 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $870,000 Active 183 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $870,000 Active 182 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $870,000 Active 181 DOM
15. 2025-12-01
    historical

    Show marketing remark (172 chars)

    This 2 Family Style Home Features 4 Bedrooms, 2 Full Baths, 2 Kitchens & 2 Car Garage. The information provided is estimated to the best of our abilities at this time.

16. 2025-12-01
    listed $870,000 Active 172-char remark

    Show marketing remark (172 chars)

    This 2 Family Style Home Features 4 Bedrooms, 2 Full Baths, 2 Kitchens & 2 Car Garage. The information provided is estimated to the best of our abilities at this time.

17. 2025-08-05
    listed $870,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $10,972 · $914/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $12,838 · $1,070/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,865/yr (+$155/mo · 17.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 5 unhealthy d/yr today · 8 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $88,152
• − Mortgage interest: −$48,734
• − Property taxes: −$10,972
• − Insurance: −$4,350
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$7,052
• − Management: −$7,052
• − Depreciation: −$25,309
• Taxable loss: −$15,317
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,676
• After-tax cash flow: $3,245/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mineola Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3619500
• Math proficiency: 71% ▲ 5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 69% ▲ 8.00%
• Median HH income: $84,012
• Composite: 62.64/100
• National rank: #676
• State rank: #113 of 590 in NY

Livability — Mineola

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #58
• US rank: #868

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A Health & safety A User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Mineola, NY
• County: Nassau County · 653,051 people
• City population: 21,641
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 21,641
• Household income: $137,665
• Rent vs Own: 31.3% rent · 68.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 489.0

Population outlook (Nassau County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,409,302 people
• By 2030: 1,431,482 · +1.6%
• By 2040: 1,471,607 · +4.4%
• By 2050: 1,502,845 · +6.6%
• By 2075: 1,575,403 · +11.8%
• By 2100: 1,554,356 · +10.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 63% Hispanic / Latino 16% Asian 14% Two or more races 10% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 2% Dominican 3%
• Common ancestry: Russian 6% Romanian 6% Scotch-Irish 2%
• Foreign-born: 29% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 62% English-only · Other Indo-European 12% Spanish 11% Chinese 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Nassau

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.9% · R 52.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.6pp toward R · 2008: 8.4pp · 2024: -4.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+4.2 2020: D+9.5 2016: D+5.3 2012: D+6.7 2008: D+8.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -600.19%
• Current HPI: 327.4674
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.88%
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2025-12-01 Listed $870,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-01 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-05 Listed $870,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+2.6%/yr

Latest (2024): $10,972 · -1.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.