15 bd · 9.0 ba ·
2,592 sqft ·
Built 1870
· MultiFamily
· Active
· 181 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$5,019/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$943
Tax + insurance
−$355
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$1,054
Net cashflow
$2,666/mo
Annual
$31,995/yr
Cap rate
24.45%
Cash-on-cash
64.84%
DSCR
3.89
1% rule
2.79%
Cash to close
$50,372
Investor read
This is a 3 × 5-bed/3.0-bath units multifamily listed at $180k. Condition is rated fair.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $3k ($32k/yr) — positive. Per door: $889/mo.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($5k rent vs $180k).
It's been on market 181 days — a 12% lower offer ($158k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $158k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 81/100 on livability (#95 in NY, #1,446 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, commute A; Watch: amenities C-, employment C-, crime F.
Fredonia Central School District (town): math 55% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #376 of 590 in NY (top 64%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
Zoned schools: Fredonia Elementary School (math 32% / reading 52%, grade F, #1,361 of 2,108 statewide, top 67%, 398 students, 49% FRL); Fredonia Middle School (math 48% / reading 41%, grade D, #348 of 729 statewide, top 50%, 426 students, 43% FRL); Fredonia High School (math 98% / reading 75%, grade A, #342 of 1,100 statewide, top 31%, 463 students, 38% FRL) — zoned schools average 43% FRL vs 28% district-wide (15 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $56/mo; built in 1870 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: 158 active listings in the ZIP; 127 units permitted in Chautauqua County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
Chautauqua County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $50k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 24.4% vs local median 4.0% in Fredonia — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
This rent per unit runs 36% of the median local income ($56k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 181 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
Built in 1870 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)
Major: roof
— Signs of wear and potential leaks
Major: siding
— Peeling paint and visible damage
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· Data 4 h agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29