1461 Welch Rd

Kimberling City, MO 65737

$175,000C-

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,300 sqft · Built 1984 · Other · Pending · 79 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,550/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$918
• Tax + insurance: −$119
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$326
• Net cashflow: $188/mo
• Annual: $2,258/yr
• Cap rate: 7.58%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.61%
• DSCR: 1.21
• 1% rule: 0.89%
• Cash to close: $49,000

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $175k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $188 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $155k (11.4% below list).
• It's been on market 79 days — a 6% lower offer ($164k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $155k (11.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-2.2%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#162 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, employment D, amenities F.
• Reeds Spring R-IV (rural): math 34% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #182 of 324 in MO (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Reeds Spring Elem. (math 33% / reading 33%, grade F, #744 of 1,115 statewide, top 67%, 358 students, 62% FRL); Reeds Spring Middle (math 31% / reading 46%, grade F, #202 of 391 statewide, top 54%, 286 students, 56% FRL); Reeds Spring High (math 32% / reading 47%, grade F, #247 of 521 statewide, top 55%, 602 students, 47% FRL) — zoned schools at 55% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 342 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 191 units permitted in Stone County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Stone County population projected at -30% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• Cap rate 7.6% vs local median 1.6% in Kimberling City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 79 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 11% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.