1461 Welch Rd · Kimberling City, MO 65737

$175,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,300 sqft · Other · 79 Days on market

Built 1984 0.56 ac lot ↓ 8% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.2/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.1/10.0
• 1% rule +3.9/10.0
• Appreciation +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Price Improvements. .. Charming 3-bedroom, 1-bath home located just minutes from the lake and full of potential for the right buyer with a vision. This property offers a great opportunity to create your ideal retreat or year-round residence. Recent major upgrades include a brand new roof and a new septic system, providing peace of mind and a strong foundation for future improvements. Enjoy the proximity to the water, the quiet surroundings, and the chance to make this home your own. Perfect for investors, renovators, or anyone looking to customize a home in a desirable lake-area location.

Key facts

• Lake-area location
• New septic system
• New roof

Tags

• NEW ROOF
• NEW SEPTIC SYSTEM
• PROXIMITY TO THE WATER
• QUIET SURROUNDINGS
• LAKE-AREA LOCATION

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $175k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $188 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $155k (11.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $155k (11.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.6% vs local median 1.7% in Kimberling City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#162 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, employment D, amenities F.
• Reeds Spring R-IV (rural): math 34% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #182 of 324 in MO (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Reeds Spring Elem. (math 33% / reading 33%, grade F, #744 of 1,115 statewide, top 67%, 358 students, 62% FRL); Reeds Spring Middle (math 31% / reading 46%, grade F, #202 of 391 statewide, top 54%, 286 students, 56% FRL); Reeds Spring High (math 32% / reading 47%, grade F, #247 of 521 statewide, top 55%, 602 students, 47% FRL) — zoned schools at 55% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 341 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 191 units permitted in Stone County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-2.2%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Stone County population projected at -30% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 79 days — a 6% lower offer ($164k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $155,000 (11.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 79 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 11% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.89% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.58%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.61%
• DSCR: 1.21
• GRM: 9.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-2.17% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.79×
• Total profit: $-10,336
• Equity at exit: $32,602

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.23×
• Total profit: $11,505
• Equity at exit: $26,552

Cash invested: $49,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 65737

• Home prices YoY: -0.9%
• Active inventory: 341
• Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,550 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$918
• Tax from tax record: −$46 /mo · $548/yr
• Insurance: −$73
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$326
• Net cashflow: $188

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,312

Max offer price $175,000

Occupancy floor 83%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,750
• Closing costs: $5,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
260 Terrace Crest Ln Reeds Spring, MO	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,550	$1.03	44d	1	0.39mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-04-07
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-10
   price $175,000
3. 2026-01-18
   listed $189,900 Active
4. 1994-05-01
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $548 · $46/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,698 · $141/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,149/yr (+$96/mo · 209.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 0% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,600
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,803
• − Property taxes: −$548
• − Insurance: −$875
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,488
• − Management: −$1,488
• − Depreciation: −$5,091
• Taxable loss: −$693
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$166
• After-tax cash flow: $2,425/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Reeds Spring R-IV
• NCES district ID: 2926160
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $42,158
• Composite: 32.06/100
• National rank: #5819
• State rank: #182 of 324 in MO

Livability — Kimberling City

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #162
• US rank: #8879

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 8,279

Population outlook (Stone County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 28,147 people
• By 2030: 26,405 · -6.2%
• By 2040: 22,762 · -19.1%
• By 2050: 19,706 · -30.0%
• By 2075: 14,742 · -47.6%
• By 2100: 10,832 · -61.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5% Slovak 4% Iranian 3%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Stone

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+61.4) · D 18.9% · R 80.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -24.1pp toward R · 2008: -37.3pp · 2024: -61.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+61.4 2020: R+61.1 2016: R+62.1 2012: R+49.2 2008: R+37.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -2.17%
• Current HPI: 239.032
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

-7.8% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-07 Pending — SOMO
• 2026-03-10 Price Changed $175,000 SOMO
• 2026-01-18 Listed $189,900 SOMO
• 1994-05-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+1.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $548 · -0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.