DAVIS Plan

Denton, TX 76249

$290,990F

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,470 sqft · Built — · SingleFamily · Active · 353 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,243/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,773
• Tax + insurance: −$564
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$471
• Net cashflow: $-565/mo
• Annual: $-6,783/yr
• Cap rate: 4.29%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.16%
• DSCR: 0.68
• 1% rule: 0.66%
• Cash to close: $94,693

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $291k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-565 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $256k (11.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $224k (22.9% below list).
• It's been on market 353 days — a 12% lower offer ($256k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $224k (22.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 88/100 on livability (#2 in TX, #210 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+.
• Krum ISD (rural): math 44% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #218 of 826 in TX (top 26%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 272 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 6d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 10,531 units permitted in Denton County in 2024 (2,713 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Denton County population projected at +66% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Cap rate 4.3% vs local median 3.4% in Denton — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 353 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 23% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.