DAVIS Plan · Denton, TX 76249

$290,990

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,470 sqft · SingleFamily · 350 Days on market

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.5/30.0
• Livability +4.4/5.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.6/10.0
• DSCR +0.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Davis is a two-story floor plan offering approx 1,470 sq. ft. of living space, 3 bedrooms and 2.5 bathrooms. As you enter the home through the foyer, you'll pass the powder bathroom. Next, you'll pass the stairwell and enter into the open concept living space. The kitchen is open to the dining area and living room, perfect for entertaining. The kitchen features quartz countertops, stainless steel appliances, the pantry, and kitchen island. Head up the stairs to find the main bedroom suite, all secondary bedrooms, the laundry room, and a full bath. The walk in closet and spacious primary bathroom are very spacious. The Davis layout is perfect if you love entertaining downstairs and relaxing upstairs. Upstairs you will also find two additional secondary bedrooms, one of which also has a walk-in closet. This home also includes a covered patio, professionally landscaped and irrigated yard complete with sod. Additional features include tankless water heater, Luxury vinyl flooring in the entry, halls and wet areas. The Midland includes our HOME IS CONNECTED base package. Using one central hub that talks to all the devices in your home, you can control the lights, thermostat and locks, all from your cellular device. Photos shown here may not depict the specified home and features and are included for illustration purposes only. Elevations, exterior/ interior colors, options, available upgrades, and standard features will vary in each community and may change without notice. May

Key facts

• Quartz countertops
• Covered patio
• Kitchen island

Tags

• OPEN CONCEPT LIVING SPACE
• QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• KITCHEN ISLAND
• WALK IN CLOSET
• COVERED PATIO

🏗️ New construction. The $290,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $338,204.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $291k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-565 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $256k (11.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $224k (22.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $224k (22.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.3% vs local median 3.4% in Denton — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 88/100 on livability (#2 in TX, #210 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+.
• Krum ISD (rural): math 44% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #218 of 826 in TX (top 26%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 273 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 6d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 10,531 units permitted in Denton County in 2024 (2,713 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Denton County population projected at +66% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 350 days — a 12% lower offer ($256k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $224,292 (22.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 350 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 23% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.66% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.29%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.16%
• DSCR: 0.68
• GRM: 12.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $338,204
• List price: $290,990
• Delta: -13.96%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5545 Flannel Ln	0.24mi	3/2.5	1,470 (0%)	1mo	$274,990	$187	88
5556 Corduroy Rd	0.29mi	3/2.5	1,470 (0%)	1mo	$274,990	$187	86
5416 Corduroy Rd	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,434 (-2%)	0mo	$269,990	$188	85
5573 Corduroy Rd	0.32mi	3/2.5	1,470 (0%)	1mo	$274,990	$187	84
5576 Corduroy Rd	0.32mi	3/2.5	1,470 (0%)	1mo	$288,990	$197	84
1616 Tin Roof Rd	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,411 (-4%)	1mo	$305,460	$216	78
5548 Rollins Dr	0.23mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,544 (+5%)	1mo	$309,990	$201	73
5533 Flannel Ln	0.22mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,572 (+7%)	0mo	$279,990	$178	71
1516 Tin Roof Rd	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,596 (+9%)	1mo	$314,990	$197	70
1508 Tin Roof Rd	0.28mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,586 (+8%)	0mo	$309,990	$195	67
1512 Tin Roof Rd	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,299 (-12%)	0mo	$299,990	$231	65
1604 Tin Roof Rd	0.27mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,681 (+14%)	1mo	$320,990	$191	56

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -28.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.04×
• Total profit: $-90,777
• Equity at exit: $50,427

10-year hold

• IRR: -28.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.32×
• Total profit: $-125,275
• Equity at exit: $29,242

Cash invested: $94,697 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76249

• Home prices YoY: -11.1%
• Active inventory: 273
• Price-to-rent: 10.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,243 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,774
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$423 /mo · $5,073/yr
• Insurance: −$141
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$471
• Net cashflow: $-565

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,959

Max offer price $256,398

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-332	-5% $-448	+0% $-565	+5% $-682	+10% $-799
Rent	-10% $-743	-5% $-654	+0% $-565	+5% $-477	+10% $-388
Rate	-1.0pp $-395	-0.5pp $-479	base $-565	+0.5pp $-653	+1.0pp $-742

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $84,551
• Closing costs: $10,146
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5533 Flannel Ln Krum, TX	4.0	2.0	1572	$2,100	$1.34	6d	1	0.20mi
5544 Flannel Ln Krum, TX	3.0	2.0	1434	$2,100	$1.46	5d	1	0.20mi
5552 Rollins Dr Krum, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$2,200	$1.52	22d	1	0.22mi
5568 Corduroy Rd Krum, TX	4.0	2.5	1568	$2,100	$1.34	6d	1	0.29mi
1106 Spring Flower Dr Krum, TX	3.0	2.0	1568	$1,800	$1.15	44d	1	1.36mi
1633 Kawati Way Krum, TX	3.0	2.0	1874	$2,000	$1.07	25d	1	1.38mi
1415 Aztec Trl Krum, TX	3.0	2.0	1585	$2,050	$1.29	4d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $290,990 Active 350 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $290,990 Active 349 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $290,990 Active 348 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $290,990 Active 347 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $290,990 Active 345 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $290,990 Active 344 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $290,990 Active 341 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $290,990 Active 340 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $290,990 Active 339 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $290,990 Active 336 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $290,990 Active 335 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $290,990 Active 334 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $290,990 Active 333 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $290,990 Active 332 DOM
15. 2025-08-06
    price $290,990 1499-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1499 chars)

    The Davis is a two-story floor plan offering approx 1,470 sq. ft. of living space, 3 bedrooms and 2.5 bathrooms. As you enter the home through the foyer, you'll pass the powder bathroom. Next, you'll pass the stairwell and enter into the open concept living space. The kitchen is open to the dining area and living room, perfect for entertaining. The kitchen features quartz countertops, stainless steel appliances, the pantry, and kitchen island. Head up the stairs to find the main bedroom suite, all secondary bedrooms, the laundry room, and a full bath. The walk in closet and spacious primary bathroom are very spacious. The Davis layout is perfect if you love entertaining downstairs and relaxing upstairs. Upstairs you will also find two additional secondary bedrooms, one of which also has a walk-in closet. This home also includes a covered patio, professionally landscaped and irrigated yard complete with sod. Additional features include tankless water heater, Luxury vinyl flooring in the entry, halls and wet areas. The Midland includes our HOME IS CONNECTED base package. Using one central hub that talks to all the devices in your home, you can control the lights, thermostat and locks, all from your cellular device. Photos shown here may not depict the specified home and features and are included for illustration purposes only. Elevations, exterior/ interior colors, options, available upgrades, and standard features will vary in each community and may change without notice. May

16. 2025-07-03
    listed $285,990 Active 1499-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1499 chars)

    The Davis is a two-story floor plan offering approx 1,470 sq. ft. of living space, 3 bedrooms and 2.5 bathrooms. As you enter the home through the foyer, you'll pass the powder bathroom. Next, you'll pass the stairwell and enter into the open concept living space. The kitchen is open to the dining area and living room, perfect for entertaining. The kitchen features quartz countertops, stainless steel appliances, the pantry, and kitchen island. Head up the stairs to find the main bedroom suite, all secondary bedrooms, the laundry room, and a full bath. The walk in closet and spacious primary bathroom are very spacious. The Davis layout is perfect if you love entertaining downstairs and relaxing upstairs. Upstairs you will also find two additional secondary bedrooms, one of which also has a walk-in closet. This home also includes a covered patio, professionally landscaped and irrigated yard complete with sod. Additional features include tankless water heater, Luxury vinyl flooring in the entry, halls and wet areas. The Midland includes our HOME IS CONNECTED base package. Using one central hub that talks to all the devices in your home, you can control the lights, thermostat and locks, all from your cellular device. Photos shown here may not depict the specified home and features and are included for illustration purposes only. Elevations, exterior/ interior colors, options, available upgrades, and standard features will vary in each community and may change without notice. May

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,915
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,945
• − Property taxes: −$5,073
• − Insurance: −$1,691
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,153
• − Management: −$2,153
• − Depreciation: −$9,839
• Taxable loss: −$12,939
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,105
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,679/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Krum ISD
• NCES district ID: 4825980
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $71,808
• Composite: 40.72/100
• National rank: #3664
• State rank: #218 of 826 in TX

Livability — Denton

• Score: 88/100
• State rank: #2
• US rank: #210

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A- Crime B Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Denton County · 901,654 people
• City population: 127,990
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 10,637
• Household income: $120,169
• Rent vs Own: 18.4% rent · 81.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 134.0

Population outlook (Denton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,053,010 people
• By 2030: 1,192,269 · +13.2%
• By 2040: 1,472,920 · +39.9%
• By 2050: 1,746,506 · +65.9%
• By 2075: 2,358,497 · +124.0%
• By 2100: 2,779,183 · +163.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 8% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Lithuanian 2% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 12% Arabic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Denton

• 2024 margin: R (+13.2) · D 42.7% · R 55.8% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +11.0pp toward D · 2008: -24.2pp · 2024: -13.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+13.2 2020: R+8.1 2016: R+20.2 2012: R+31.7 2008: R+24.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -34.45%
• Current HPI: 276.067
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+1.7% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2025-08-06 Price Changed $290,990 Zillow
• 2025-07-03 Listed $285,990 Zillow