1379 Shady Ln

Joplin, MO 64804

$152,500C

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,680 sqft · Built 2014 · Manufactured · Pending · 11 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,589/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$800
• Tax + insurance: −$166
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$334
• Net cashflow: $289/mo
• Annual: $3,469/yr
• Cap rate: 8.57%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.12%
• DSCR: 1.36
• 1% rule: 1.04%
• Cash to close: $42,700

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $152k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $289 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $152k).
• Only 11 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#318 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Diamond R-IV (rural): math 27% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #234 of 324 in MO (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Diamond Elem. (math 32% / reading 42%, grade F, #611 of 1,115 statewide, top 59%, 348 students, 53% FRL); Diamond Middle (math 22% / reading 37%, grade F, #291 of 391 statewide, top 76%, 167 students, 56% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+15.7%/yr); 353 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 110 units permitted in Newton County in 2024 (40 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Newton County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 5 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $43k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 8.6% vs local median 5.1% in Joplin — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($63k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.