1379 Shady Ln · Joplin, MO 64804

$152,500

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,680 sqft · Manufactured public records · 11 Days on market

Built 2014 0.41 ac lot ↓ 31% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.7/30.0
• DSCR +7.6/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.4/10.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

3-bedroom, 2-bath home on a corner lot with a 30x48 shop. Paved parking, RV carport, generator, storm shelter, storage building, and fenced yard. Open floor plan. Kitchen with an eat-at bar. Primary suite with garden tub and walk-in closet. Sunroom, second living area, and covered front porch with ramp.

Key facts

• Paved parking
• Fenced yard
• Storage building

Tags

• 30X48 SHOP
• PAVED PARKING
• RV CARPORT
• STORM SHELTER
• STORAGE BUILDING
• FENCED YARD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $152k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $289 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $152k).
• Cap rate 8.6% vs local median 5.1% in Joplin — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#318 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Diamond R-IV (rural): math 27% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #234 of 324 in MO (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Diamond Elem. (math 32% / reading 42%, grade F, #611 of 1,115 statewide, top 59%, 348 students, 53% FRL); Diamond Middle (math 22% / reading 37%, grade F, #291 of 391 statewide, top 76%, 167 students, 56% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+15.7%/yr); 353 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 110 units permitted in Newton County in 2024 (40 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($63k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Newton County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $43k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 11 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 5 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $152,500

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.04% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.57%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.12%
• DSCR: 1.36
• GRM: 8.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 1.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.05×
• Total profit: $2,068
• Equity at exit: $22,738

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.49×
• Total profit: $63,603
• Equity at exit: $13,185

Cash invested: $42,700 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 64804

• Rents YoY: 15.7%
• Active inventory: 353
• Price-to-rent: 8.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,589 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$800
• Tax from tax record: −$103 /mo · $1,233/yr
• Insurance: −$64
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$334
• Net cashflow: $289

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,223

Max offer price $152,500

Occupancy floor 77%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $38,125
• Closing costs: $4,575
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3419 S Kenser Ct Joplin, MO	3.0	2.5	1400	$1,495	$1.07	21d	1	0.20mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-04-20
   status Pending

   Show marketing remark (304 chars)

   3-bedroom, 2-bath home on a corner lot with a 30x48 shop. Paved parking, RV carport, generator, storm shelter, storage building, and fenced yard. Open floor plan. Kitchen with an eat-at bar. Primary suite with garden tub and walk-in closet. Sunroom, second living area, and covered front porch with ramp.

2. 2026-04-20
   status Pending 304-char remark

   Show marketing remark (304 chars)

   3-bedroom, 2-bath home on a corner lot with a 30x48 shop. Paved parking, RV carport, generator, storm shelter, storage building, and fenced yard. Open floor plan. Kitchen with an eat-at bar. Primary suite with garden tub and walk-in closet. Sunroom, second living area, and covered front porch with ramp.

3. 2026-04-09
   listed $152,500 Active
4. 2026-04-08
   listed $152,500 Active 304-char remark

   Show marketing remark (304 chars)

   3-bedroom, 2-bath home on a corner lot with a 30x48 shop. Paved parking, RV carport, generator, storm shelter, storage building, and fenced yard. Open floor plan. Kitchen with an eat-at bar. Primary suite with garden tub and walk-in closet. Sunroom, second living area, and covered front porch with ramp.

5. 2024-09-21
   price $233,900
6. 2024-09-21
   price $233,900
7. 2024-08-28
   price $239,900
8. 2024-08-28
   price $239,900
9. 2024-08-18
   listed $249,900 Active
10. 2022-04-26
    soldstatus
11. 2022-04-26
    soldstatus Closed
12. 2022-04-26
    soldstatus
13. 2022-01-06
    listed $219,900
14. 2022-01-06
    listed $219,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,233 · $103/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,479 · $123/mo
• Expected delta: +$246/yr (+$21/mo · 20.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,065
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,542
• − Property taxes: −$1,233
• − Insurance: −$762
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,525
• − Management: −$1,525
• − Depreciation: −$4,436
• Taxable income: $1,040
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$250
• After-tax cash flow: $3,220/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Diamond R-IV
• NCES district ID: 2910800
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $49,507
• Composite: 28.6/100
• National rank: #6715
• State rank: #234 of 324 in MO

Livability — Joplin

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #318
• US rank: #14578

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Newton County · 37,016 people
• City population: 73,303
• Metro: Joplin, MO
• Population (ZIP): 37,016
• Household income: $62,574
• Rent vs Own: 32.6% rent · 67.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1082.0

Population outlook (Newton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 59,151 people
• By 2030: 58,961 · -0.3%
• By 2040: 57,609 · -2.6%
• By 2050: 54,775 · -7.4%
• By 2075: 46,140 · -22.0%
• By 2100: 34,348 · -41.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Two or more races 9% Hispanic / Latino 6% Black 2% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Italian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 1% Other Indo-European 1% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Newton

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+58.6) · D 20.2% · R 78.8% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.5pp toward R · 2008: -40.1pp · 2024: -58.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+58.6 2020: R+57.4 2016: R+58.7 2012: R+46.9 2008: R+40.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -204.80%
• Current HPI: 279.4471
• Rent YoY: ▲ 15.66%
• Metro: Joplin, MO
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

-30.7% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-20 Pending — OGAR
• 2026-04-20 Pending — SOMO
• 2026-04-09 Listed $152,500 OGAR
• 2026-04-08 Listed $152,500 SOMO
• 2024-09-21 Price Changed $233,900 OGAR
• 2024-09-21 Price Changed $233,900 SOMO
• 2024-08-28 Price Changed $239,900 OGAR
• 2024-08-28 Price Changed $239,900 SOMO
• 2024-08-18 Listed $249,900 SOMO
• 2022-04-26 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2022-04-26 Sold (MLS) — OGAR
• 2022-04-26 Sold (MLS) — SOMO
• 2022-01-06 Listed $219,900 SOMO
• 2022-01-06 Listed $219,900 OGAR

Property tax history

+1.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,233 · +1.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.