34495 Agave #1105

French Valley, CA 92596

$445,000D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,484 sqft · Built 2023 · Townhouse · Active · 11 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,382/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,334
• Tax + insurance: −$870
• HOA: −$327
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$710
• Net cashflow: $-859/mo
• Annual: $-10,308/yr
• Cap rate: 3.98%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.27%
• DSCR: 0.63
• 1% rule: 0.76%
• Cash to close: $124,600

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $445k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-859 ($-10k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $293k (34.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $338k (24.0% below list).
• Only 11 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $293k (34.1% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• In year one you build about $48k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $44k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#655 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Temecula Valley Unified (urban): math 55% / reading 69% proficiency, ranked #173 of 1,400 in CA (top 12%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 17% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Susan La Vorgna Elementary (810 students, 27% FRL); Bella Vista Middle (1,396 students, 26% FRL); Temecula Valley High (2,864 students, 25% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.8%/yr); 353 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 9,195 units permitted in Riverside County in 2024 (1,512 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Riverside County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$76k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($133k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.