34495 Agave #1105 · French Valley, CA 92596

$445,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,484 sqft · Townhouse · 11 Days on market

Built 2023 Est $467k · at est. $327/mo HOA · 10% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +9.7/15.0
• Cash flow +6.0/30.0
• Schools +5.7/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• 1% rule +2.6/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• DSCR +0.3/10.0

Listing remarks

Discover the charm of a modern town home living in the vibrant city of Winchester. Nestled in a prime location, this home offers the perfect blend of urban convenience and outdoor enjoyment, being close to new shopping destinations such as Costco and a short drive from the Temecula Promenade. This beautiful townhome features luxury vinyl flooring and premium carpet, providing a cozy and inviting atmosphere. The home is equipped with solar panels on the roof, ensuring energy efficiency and significantly reducing utility costs. The sale includes all essential appliances, such as a dishwasher, microwave, stove and a new refrigerator, making moving a breeze. The kitchen is a true highlight, bo

Key facts

• Solar panels
• Granite countertops
• Prime location

Tags

• SOLAR PANELS
• LUXURY VINYL FLOORING
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• SOFT-CLOSING CABINETS
• PRIME LOCATION

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Part of the Sevilla association; Association fee $327 monthly; Community pool listed as an association amenity; Community consists of 180 units

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage; 2 total parking spaces
• Utilities: Public sewer; District/public water; Solar energy generation
• Home design: Attached house; Attached property with 2 total stories; 2+ common walls
• Construction: Year built: source listed as Other
• Exterior features: Community pool; Has a view; Suburban neighborhood with sidewalks, curbs, gutters and storm drains

Interior

• Bedrooms: All bedrooms located upstairs
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; One bathroom on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Central cooling
• Interior features: Two-level home; Main entry on level 1; Community spa
• Laundry & utility: Laundry inside the unit

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $445k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-859 ($-10k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $293k (34.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $338k (24.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $293k (34.1% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#655 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Temecula Valley Unified (urban): math 55% / reading 69% proficiency, ranked #173 of 1,400 in CA (top 12%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 17% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Susan La Vorgna Elementary (810 students, 27% FRL); Bella Vista Middle (1,396 students, 26% FRL); Temecula Valley High (2,864 students, 25% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.8%/yr); 353 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 9,195 units permitted in Riverside County in 2024 (1,512 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($133k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $48k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $44k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Riverside County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$76k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 11 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $293,247 (34.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.76% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.98%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.27%
• DSCR: 0.63
• GRM: 11.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $467,460
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
34495 Agave Dr #20106	0.00mi	3/2.5	1,484 (0%)	3mo	$450,000	$303	96
34495 Agave Dr #14106	0.00mi	3/2.5	1,484 (0%)	5mo	$467,000	$315	94
34495 Agave Dr #10110	0.00mi	3/2.5	1,408 (-5%)	2mo	$460,000	$327	87
34495 Agave Dr #34107	0.03mi	3/2.5	1,408 (-5%)	2mo	$465,000	$330	86
34495 Agave Dr #23104	0.00mi	3/2.5	1,408 (-5%)	6mo	$439,000	$312	84
34495 Agave Dr #8108	0.00mi	3/2.5	1,408 (-5%)	8mo	$435,000	$309	83
34495 Agave Dr #34105	0.03mi	3/2.5	1,408 (-5%)	11mo	$500,000	$355	79
34495 Agave Dr #8110	0.00mi	3/2.5	1,399 (-6%)	14mo	$443,000	$317	77
34495 Agave Dr #29104	0.00mi	3/2.5	1,399 (-6%)	16mo	$471,990	$337	75
34495 Agave Dr #3111	0.00mi	3/2.5	1,674 (+13%)	7mo	$475,000	$284	71
34495 Agave Dr #7101	0.00mi	3/2.5	1,674 (+13%)	9mo	$520,000	$311	69
34495 Agave Dr #14102	0.00mi	3/2.5	1,674 (+13%)	12mo	$487,500	$291	66

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 17.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.43×
• Total profit: $178,065
• Equity at exit: $400,891

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.0%
• Equity multiple: 5.42×
• Total profit: $550,309
• Equity at exit: $864,537

Cash invested: $124,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92596

• Home prices YoY: 3.9%
• Rents YoY: -0.8%
• Active inventory: 353
• Price-to-rent: 11.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,382 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,334
• Tax from tax record: −$685 /mo · $8,219/yr
• Insurance: −$185
• HOA: −$327
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$710
• Net cashflow: $-859

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,470

Max offer price $293,247

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-607	-5% $-733	+0% $-859	+5% $-985	+10% $-1,111
Rent	-10% $-1,126	-5% $-993	+0% $-859	+5% $-725	+10% $-592
Rate	-1.0pp $-635	-0.5pp $-746	base $-859	+0.5pp $-974	+1.0pp $-1,092

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $111,250
• Closing costs: $13,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
34495 Agave Dr #1105 Winchester, CA	3.0	2.5	1399	$3,250	$2.32	12d	1	0.02mi
34495 Agave Dr #20106 Winchester, CA	3.0	2.5	1400	$3,050	$2.18	20d	1	0.02mi
34495 Agave Dr Bldg 24 Winchester, CA	3.0	2.5	1400	$2,645	$1.89	26d	1	0.02mi
34875 Pourroy Rd Winchester, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	976	$2,980	$3.05	0d	1	0.65mi
33014 Marin Fields Rd Winchester, CA	4.0	2.0	1779	$3,795	$2.13	45d	1	0.79mi
34543 Ciruela AVE French Valley, CA	3.0	2.5	1497	$3,400	$2.27	0d	1	0.94mi
31647 Angel Aura Dr Winchester, CA	3.0	2.5	1711	$3,195	$1.87	18d	1	0.99mi
31629 Angel Aura Dr Winchester, CA	3.0	3.0	1711	$3,099	$1.81	24d	1	0.99mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $327 · $3,924/yr

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $445,000 Active 11 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $445,000 Active 8 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $445,000 Active 7 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $445,000 Active 6 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $445,000 Active 5 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   remarks 699-char remark
7. 2026-06-13
   listed $445,000 Active 3 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $8,219 · $685/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $8,219 · $685/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone D · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 7 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $40,587
• − Mortgage interest: −$24,927
• − Property taxes: −$8,219
• − Insurance: −$2,225
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,247
• − Management: −$3,247
• − HOA: −$3,924
• − Depreciation: −$12,945
• Taxable loss: −$18,148
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,356
• After-tax cash flow: $-5,953/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Temecula Valley Unified
• NCES district ID: 0600028
• Math proficiency: 55% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 69% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $84,032
• Composite: 57.48/100
• National rank: #2264
• State rank: #173 of 1400 in CA

Livability — French Valley

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #655
• US rank: #20351

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime D- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: French Valley, CA
• County: Riverside County · 2,287,001 people
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• Population (ZIP): 38,981
• Household income: $132,538
• Rent vs Own: 16.1% rent · 83.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 591.0

Population outlook (Riverside County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,664,475 people
• By 2030: 2,802,692 · +5.2%
• By 2040: 3,050,904 · +14.5%
• By 2050: 3,256,783 · +22.2%
• By 2075: 3,655,058 · +37.2%
• By 2100: 3,766,594 · +41.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.72)
• Race & ethnicity: White 38% Hispanic / Latino 34% Two or more races 16% Asian 12% Black 6% Pacific Islander 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 29%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Italian 2% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 16% Tagalog/Filipino 4% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Riverside

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 49.3% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.6pp toward R · 2008: 2.3pp · 2024: -1.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.3 2020: D+8.0 2016: D+4.3 2012: R+0.4 2008: D+2.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 12.43%
• Current HPI: 332.169
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.79%
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+12614.3% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-10 Listed $445,000 CRMLS
• 2026-02-25 Price Changed $3,250 APPFOLIO
• 2026-02-14 Listed for Rent $2,950 APPFOLIO
• 2024-03-14 Rental Removed $3,500 APPFOLIO
• 2024-01-24 Listed for Rent $3,500 APPFOLIO

Property tax history

+4.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $8,219 · +4.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.