14925 Great Overland Stage Rte Unit A13

Mount Laguna, CA 92036

$27,900D

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 480 sqft · Built 1991 · Manufactured · Active · 202 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,692/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$146
• Tax + insurance: −$46
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$355
• Net cashflow: $1,144/mo
• Annual: $13,725/yr
• Cap rate: 55.49%
• Cash-on-cash: 175.70%
• DSCR: 8.82
• 1% rule: 6.06%
• Cash to close: $7,812

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $28k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($14k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $28k).
• It's been on market 202 days — a 12% lower offer ($25k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $25k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $193 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $837 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 32/100 on livability (#1,454 in CA) — a limited-amenity area; tenant pool skews transient or value-seeking. Strengths: crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Julian Union Elementary (rural): math 35% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #791 of 1,400 in CA (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Julian Elementary (187 students, 65% FRL); Julian Junior High (88 students, 67% FRL); Julian High (math 10% / reading 70%, grade F, #520 of 1,170 statewide, top 45%, 100 students, 53% FRL).
• Market conditions: 128 active listings in the ZIP; 11,759 units permitted in San Diego County in 2024 (7,244 in 5+ unit buildings).
• San Diego County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $11k (28%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $24k; 16% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $8k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 9→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 202 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.