14925 Great Overland Stage Rte Unit A13 · Mount Laguna, CA 92036

$27,900

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 480 sqft · Manufactured · 202 Days on market

Built 1991 ↓ 25% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Livability +1.6/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

SELLER MAY FINANCE WITH $11,000 DOWN. UNIT A13. This great little house is in the Butterfield Ranch RV and Trailer community on the Great Overland Stage Route of 1866. You own the home, and enjoy this remote desert location in the desert region of Julian's backcountry. Space rent is $500/month, and you have metered water, power, and propane available. Three swimming pools on site, clubhouse and bbq area for gatherings, laundry facilities, mail delivery, small country store, sweet neighbors and incredible views are all you need. Home is in good condition and being sold as-is. Financing is available.

Key facts

• Community pool
• Built 1991
• Listed 201 days

Tags

• CUSTOM HAND-PAINTED CABINETS
• OPEN-CONCEPT LIVING AREA
• VINTAGE WESTERN CHARM

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Community features include horse trails, rural setting, biking, hiking, BLM/National Forest access, foothills, and hunting
• HOA & community: Land lease of $500 per month (seller sourced); Rent includes pool access

Exterior

• Parking: Located in Butterfield Ranch Trailer Park
• Utilities: Private water; Septic tank
• Home design: Single-story mobile home (15' x 32'); Mobile home remains
• Construction: Year built: see remarks
• Exterior features: Community pool (see remarks); Lot is level/flat; Secluded setting

Interior

• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Wall/window cooling
• Interior features: One-level home; Entry accessed via steps
• Laundry & utility: Community laundry (see remarks)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $28k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($14k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $28k).
• Recommended offer: $25k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 32/100 on livability (#1,454 in CA) — a limited-amenity area; tenant pool skews transient or value-seeking. Strengths: crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Julian Union Elementary (rural): math 35% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #791 of 1,400 in CA (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Julian Elementary (187 students, 65% FRL); Julian Junior High (88 students, 67% FRL); Julian High (math 10% / reading 70%, grade F, #520 of 1,170 statewide, top 45%, 100 students, 53% FRL).
• Market conditions: 128 active listings in the ZIP; 11,759 units permitted in San Diego County in 2024 (7,244 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $193 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $837 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Diego County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $8k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 202 days — a 12% lower offer ($25k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $11k (28%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $24k; 16% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 9→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $24,552 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 202 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 6.06% ✓
• Cap rate: 55.49%
• Cash-on-cash: 175.70%
• DSCR: 8.82
• GRM: 1.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 9.75×
• Total profit: $68,352
• Equity at exit: $4,160

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 20.64×
• Total profit: $153,426
• Equity at exit: $2,412

Cash invested: $7,812 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92036

• Active inventory: 128
• Price-to-rent: 1.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,692 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$146
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$35 /mo · $418/yr
• Insurance: −$12
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$355
• Net cashflow: $1,144

Break-even live

Break-even rent $244

Max offer price $27,900

Occupancy floor 27%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,163	-5% $1,153	+0% $1,144	+5% $1,134	+10% $1,124
Rent	-10% $1,010	-5% $1,077	+0% $1,144	+5% $1,211	+10% $1,277
Rate	-1.0pp $1,158	-0.5pp $1,151	base $1,144	+0.5pp $1,137	+1.0pp $1,129

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $6,975
• Closing costs: $837
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $27,900 Active 202 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $27,900 Active 199 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   pricestatusdays on market $27,900 Active 198 DOM
4. 2026-06-10
   status $29,900 Pending Sale 197 DOM
5. 2026-06-09
   days on market $29,900 Active 197 DOM
6. 2026-06-08
   days on market $29,900 Active 196 DOM
7. 2026-06-07
   days on market $29,900 Active 195 DOM
8. 2026-06-04
   days on market $29,900 Active 192 DOM
9. 2026-06-03
   days on market $29,900 Active 191 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    days on market $29,900 Active 190 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $29,900 Active 189 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $29,900 Active 188 DOM
13. 2026-04-21
    price $29,900
14. 2026-04-16
    price $34,100
15. 2026-03-11
    price $34,000
16. 2025-11-24
    listed $39,000 Active
17. 2025-10-29
    soldstatus $24,099 Closed Sale 605-char remark

    Show marketing remark (605 chars)

    SELLER MAY FINANCE WITH $11,000 DOWN. UNIT A13. This great little house is in the Butterfield Ranch RV and Trailer community on the Great Overland Stage Route of 1866. You own the home, and enjoy this remote desert location in the desert region of Julian's backcountry. Space rent is $500/month, and you have metered water, power, and propane available. Three swimming pools on site, clubhouse and bbq area for gatherings, laundry facilities, mail delivery, small country store, sweet neighbors and incredible views are all you need. Home is in good condition and being sold as-is. Financing is available.

18. 2025-10-01
    status Pending Sale 605-char remark

    Show marketing remark (605 chars)

    SELLER MAY FINANCE WITH $11,000 DOWN. UNIT A13. This great little house is in the Butterfield Ranch RV and Trailer community on the Great Overland Stage Route of 1866. You own the home, and enjoy this remote desert location in the desert region of Julian's backcountry. Space rent is $500/month, and you have metered water, power, and propane available. Three swimming pools on site, clubhouse and bbq area for gatherings, laundry facilities, mail delivery, small country store, sweet neighbors and incredible views are all you need. Home is in good condition and being sold as-is. Financing is available.

19. 2025-09-24
    price $24,099 605-char remark

    Show marketing remark (605 chars)

    SELLER MAY FINANCE WITH $11,000 DOWN. UNIT A13. This great little house is in the Butterfield Ranch RV and Trailer community on the Great Overland Stage Route of 1866. You own the home, and enjoy this remote desert location in the desert region of Julian's backcountry. Space rent is $500/month, and you have metered water, power, and propane available. Three swimming pools on site, clubhouse and bbq area for gatherings, laundry facilities, mail delivery, small country store, sweet neighbors and incredible views are all you need. Home is in good condition and being sold as-is. Financing is available.

20. 2025-09-04
    price $29,000 605-char remark

    Show marketing remark (605 chars)

    SELLER MAY FINANCE WITH $11,000 DOWN. UNIT A13. This great little house is in the Butterfield Ranch RV and Trailer community on the Great Overland Stage Route of 1866. You own the home, and enjoy this remote desert location in the desert region of Julian's backcountry. Space rent is $500/month, and you have metered water, power, and propane available. Three swimming pools on site, clubhouse and bbq area for gatherings, laundry facilities, mail delivery, small country store, sweet neighbors and incredible views are all you need. Home is in good condition and being sold as-is. Financing is available.

21. 2025-08-10
    price $34,000 605-char remark

    Show marketing remark (605 chars)

    SELLER MAY FINANCE WITH $11,000 DOWN. UNIT A13. This great little house is in the Butterfield Ranch RV and Trailer community on the Great Overland Stage Route of 1866. You own the home, and enjoy this remote desert location in the desert region of Julian's backcountry. Space rent is $500/month, and you have metered water, power, and propane available. Three swimming pools on site, clubhouse and bbq area for gatherings, laundry facilities, mail delivery, small country store, sweet neighbors and incredible views are all you need. Home is in good condition and being sold as-is. Financing is available.

22. 2025-06-22
    listed $35,000 Active 605-char remark

    Show marketing remark (605 chars)

    SELLER MAY FINANCE WITH $11,000 DOWN. UNIT A13. This great little house is in the Butterfield Ranch RV and Trailer community on the Great Overland Stage Route of 1866. You own the home, and enjoy this remote desert location in the desert region of Julian's backcountry. Space rent is $500/month, and you have metered water, power, and propane available. Three swimming pools on site, clubhouse and bbq area for gatherings, laundry facilities, mail delivery, small country store, sweet neighbors and incredible views are all you need. Home is in good condition and being sold as-is. Financing is available.

23. 2023-09-25
    soldstatus $40,000 Closed Sale 639-char remark

    Show marketing remark (639 chars)

    This space is currently being renovated and will be ready for move-in next week. More pictures coming soon. Butterfield is a Manufactured home and RV community in Julian surrounded by the beautiful Anza Borrego desert. The community features a general store, 3 swimming pools, a clubhouse, and nearby recreational trails. Animals are welcome (limit 2) with boarding sites available for horses and small farm animals. Hardline water and sewage are available and pay laundry facility onsite if needed. This is a family-friendly park within the Julian school district and bus pick up/drop off is on-site! Space rent is $500/mo plus utilities.

24. 2023-09-08
    status Pending Sale 639-char remark

    Show marketing remark (639 chars)

    This space is currently being renovated and will be ready for move-in next week. More pictures coming soon. Butterfield is a Manufactured home and RV community in Julian surrounded by the beautiful Anza Borrego desert. The community features a general store, 3 swimming pools, a clubhouse, and nearby recreational trails. Animals are welcome (limit 2) with boarding sites available for horses and small farm animals. Hardline water and sewage are available and pay laundry facility onsite if needed. This is a family-friendly park within the Julian school district and bus pick up/drop off is on-site! Space rent is $500/mo plus utilities.

25. 2022-12-26
    listed $40,000 Active 639-char remark

    Show marketing remark (639 chars)

    This space is currently being renovated and will be ready for move-in next week. More pictures coming soon. Butterfield is a Manufactured home and RV community in Julian surrounded by the beautiful Anza Borrego desert. The community features a general store, 3 swimming pools, a clubhouse, and nearby recreational trails. Animals are welcome (limit 2) with boarding sites available for horses and small farm animals. Hardline water and sewage are available and pay laundry facility onsite if needed. This is a family-friendly park within the Julian school district and bus pick up/drop off is on-site! Space rent is $500/mo plus utilities.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone D · 74% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 9 d/yr ≥102°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,303
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,563
• − Property taxes: −$418
• − Insurance: −$140
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,624
• − Management: −$1,624
• − Depreciation: −$812
• Taxable income: $14,122
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,389
• After-tax cash flow: $10,336/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Julian Union Elementary
• NCES district ID: 0619140
• Math proficiency: 35% ▲ 5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $55,445
• Composite: 35.07/100
• National rank: #9915
• State rank: #791 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Mount Laguna

• Score: 32/100
• State rank: #1454
• US rank: #27818

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A Employment F Housing F Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 3,128

Population outlook (San Diego County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 3,678,185 people
• By 2030: 3,856,546 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 4,171,407 · +13.4%
• By 2050: 4,421,607 · +20.2%
• By 2075: 4,831,599 · +31.4%
• By 2100: 4,832,502 · +31.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Hispanic / Latino 18% Two or more races 13% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 16%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5% Slovak 4% Iranian 3%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · San Diego

• 2024 margin: D (+16.8) · D 56.9% · R 40.1% · Other 2.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.6pp toward D · 2008: 10.2pp · 2024: 16.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+16.8 2020: D+22.8 2016: D+17.8 2012: D+5.1 2008: D+10.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -161.21%
• Current HPI: 279.7035
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-25.2% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-21 Price Changed $29,900 CRMLS
• 2026-04-16 Price Changed $34,100 CRMLS
• 2026-03-11 Price Changed $34,000 CRMLS
• 2025-11-24 Listed $39,000 CRMLS
• 2025-10-29 Sold (MLS) $24,099 CRMLS
• 2025-10-01 Pending — CRMLS
• 2025-09-24 Price Changed $24,099 CRMLS
• 2025-09-04 Price Changed $29,000 CRMLS
• 2025-08-10 Price Changed $34,000 CRMLS
• 2025-06-22 Listed $35,000 CRMLS
• 2023-09-25 Sold (MLS) $40,000 CRMLS
• 2023-09-08 Pending — CRMLS
• 2022-12-26 Listed $40,000 CRMLS