561 State Route 42

Pine Hill, NY 12480

$120,000C-

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 931 sqft · Built 1985 · Manufactured · Active · 235 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,187/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax + insurance: −$213
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$249
• Net cashflow: $95/mo
• Annual: $1,142/yr
• Cap rate: 7.24%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.40%
• DSCR: 1.15
• 1% rule: 0.99%
• Cash to close: $33,600

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $120k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $95 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $119k (1.1% below list).
• It's been on market 235 days — a 12% lower offer ($106k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $106k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $676 of equity ($830 loan paydown + $-154 appreciation (-0.1% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#1,098 in NY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: crime C-, employment C-, cost of living C-.
• Onteora Central School District (rural): math 58% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #288 of 755 in NY (top 38%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Onteora High School (math 92% / reading 90%, grade A+, #203 of 1,100 statewide, top 20%, 413 students, 44% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 91% at this address vs 58% district-wide (+32 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Onteora Central School District average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: 15 active listings in the ZIP; 464 units permitted in Ulster County in 2024 (170 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Ulster County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $85k; 41% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• At projected returns (-0.1% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 7.2% vs local median 1.1% in Pine Hill — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 235 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.