561 State Route 42 · Pine Hill, NY 12480

$120,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 931 sqft · Manufactured public records · 234 Days on market

Built 1985 2.03 ac lot $129/sqft · 45% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.5/10.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• 1% rule +4.9/10.0
• Appreciation +4.9/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Nestled on a hill, this 2.03-acre Catskills property with 2-bedroom house invites you to make it your cozy mountain home. The view from the front porch is gorgeous. The sounds of the birds in the backyard hill forest are lovely. Brand new furnace and hot water heater. The house awaits your finishing touches.

Key facts

• Backyard hill forest
• Front porch view
• Hot water heater

Tags

• 2.03-ACRE
• FRONT PORCH VIEW
• BACKYARD HILL FOREST
• BRAND NEW FURNACE
• HOT WATER HEATER

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $120k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $95 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $119k (1.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $106k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.2% vs local median 1.1% in Pine Hill — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#1,098 in NY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: crime C-, employment C-, cost of living C-.
• Onteora Central School District (rural): math 58% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #288 of 755 in NY (top 38%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Onteora High School (math 92% / reading 90%, grade A+, #203 of 1,100 statewide, top 20%, 413 students, 44% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 91% at this address vs 58% district-wide (+32 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Onteora Central School District average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: 15 active listings in the ZIP; 464 units permitted in Ulster County in 2024 (170 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $676 of equity ($830 loan paydown + $-154 appreciation (-0.1% local appreciation)).
• Ulster County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-0.1% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 234 days — a 12% lower offer ($106k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $85k; 41% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Recommended offer $105,600 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 234 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.99% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.24%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.40%
• DSCR: 1.15
• GRM: 8.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $279,967
• List price: $120,000
• Delta: -57.14%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 5 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.13% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 1.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.06×
• Total profit: $1,853
• Equity at exit: $34,077

10-year hold

• IRR: 6.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.73×
• Total profit: $24,454
• Equity at exit: $40,355

Cash invested: $33,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12480

• Home prices YoY: -0.0%
• Active inventory: 15
• Price-to-rent: 8.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,187 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax from tax record: −$163 /mo · $1,955/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$249
• Net cashflow: $95

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,066

Max offer price $120,000

Occupancy floor 87%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $163	-5% $129	+0% $95	+5% $61	+10% $27
Rent	-10% $1	-5% $48	+0% $95	+5% $142	+10% $189
Rate	-1.0pp $156	-0.5pp $126	base $95	+0.5pp $64	+1.0pp $32

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $30,000
• Closing costs: $3,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $120,000 Active 234 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $120,000 Active 232 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $120,000 Active 231 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $120,000 Active 230 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $120,000 Active 229 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $120,000 Active 228 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $120,000 Active 226 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $120,000 Active 225 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $120,000 Active 222 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $120,000 Active 221 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $120,000 Active 220 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $120,000 Active 217 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $120,000 Active 215 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $120,000 Active 214 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $120,000 Active 213 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $120,000 Active 212 DOM
17. 2025-10-30
    listed $120,000 Active 309-char remark

    Show marketing remark (309 chars)

    Nestled on a hill, this 2.03-acre Catskills property with 2-bedroom house invites you to make it your cozy mountain home. The view from the front porch is gorgeous. The sounds of the birds in the backyard hill forest are lovely. Brand new furnace and hot water heater. The house awaits your finishing touches.

18. 2025-09-05
    listed $125,000 Active
19. 2022-06-28
    soldstatus $85,000
20. 2010-07-01
    soldstatus $33,500
21. 1985-08-06
    soldstatus $6,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,955 · $163/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,992 · $166/mo
• Expected delta: +$36/yr (+$3/mo · 1.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 9 d/yr ≥86°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,238
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,722
• − Property taxes: −$1,955
• − Insurance: −$600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,139
• − Management: −$1,139
• − Depreciation: −$3,491
• Taxable loss: −$808
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$194
• After-tax cash flow: $1,335/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Onteora Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3621840
• Math proficiency: 58% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $56,997
• Composite: 52.17/100
• National rank: #3482
• State rank: #288 of 755 in NY

Livability — Pine Hill

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #1098
• US rank: #22409

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C- Crime C- Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 499

Population outlook (Ulster County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 175,887 people
• By 2030: 171,876 · -2.3%
• By 2040: 161,771 · -8.0%
• By 2050: 151,470 · -13.9%
• By 2075: 133,023 · -24.4%
• By 2100: 113,504 · -35.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Two or more races 19% Asian 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 12% Scandinavian 6% Lithuanian 4%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · French/Haitian/Cajun 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Ulster

• 2024 margin: D (+18.7) · D 59.3% · R 40.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.9pp toward R · 2008: 23.6pp · 2024: 18.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+18.7 2020: D+20.9 2016: D+9.1 2012: D+21.9 2008: D+23.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.13%
• Current HPI: 371.5714
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+1900.0% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2025-10-30 Listed $120,000 ForSaleByOwner.com
• 2025-09-05 Listed $125,000 HVCRMLS
• 2022-06-28 Sold (Public Records) $85,000 Public Records
• 2010-07-01 Sold (Public Records) $33,500 Public Records
• 1985-08-06 Sold (Public Records) $6,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,955 · +9.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.