2036 Blackland St

Midlothian, TX 76065

$640,900C

4 bd · 3.5 ba · 2,586 sqft · Built 2026 · SingleFamily · Active · 31 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $6,792/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,361
• Tax + insurance: −$1,068
• HOA: −$71
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,426
• Net cashflow: $866/mo
• Annual: $10,390/yr
• Cap rate: 7.91%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.79%
• DSCR: 1.26
• 1% rule: 1.06%
• Cash to close: $179,452

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/3.5-bath single-family listed at $641k. Condition is rated excellent.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $866 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($7k rent vs $641k).
• It's been on market 31 days — a 3% lower offer ($622k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $622k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $19k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#371 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Midlothian ISD (suburban): math 53% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #94 of 826 in TX (top 11%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Longbranch El (math 75% / reading 62%, grade B+, #176 of 4,322 statewide, top 4%, 652 students, 19% FRL); Walnut Grove Middle (math 57% / reading 56%, grade B, #226 of 1,662 statewide, top 14%, 992 students, 21% FRL); Midlothian H S (math 48% / reading 55%, grade D+, #478 of 1,632 statewide, top 29%, 1,994 students, 29% FRL) — zoned schools at 23% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.3%/yr); 1135 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 3,016 units permitted in Ellis County in 2024 (20 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Ellis County population projected at +36% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 5→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 7.9% vs local median 3.5% in Midlothian — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $6,792/mo this rent would consume 64% of the median local household income ($128k/yr) (locally 811% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 31 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.