5 bd · 1.0 ba ·
1,994 sqft ·
Built 1897
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 200 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,553/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$188
Tax + insurance
−$30
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$326
Net cashflow
$1,009/mo
Annual
$12,104/yr
Cap rate
40.01%
Cash-on-cash
120.41%
DSCR
6.36
1% rule
4.33%
Cash to close
$10,052
Investor read
This is a 5-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $36k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($12k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $36k).
It's been on market 200 days — a 12% lower offer ($32k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $32k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $248 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
St. Louis City (urban): math 10% / reading 18% proficiency, ranked #312 of 324 in MO (top 96%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 80% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Watch-outs: built in 1897 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: 97 active listings in the ZIP; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 294 units permitted in St. Louis city in 2024 (227 in 5+ unit buildings).
St. Louis County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $10k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.
Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 40.0% vs local median 5.0% in St. Louis — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
At $1,553/mo this rent would consume 61% of the median local household income ($31k/yr) (locally 1655% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 200 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1897 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-G5YC5X2RHRJBGG
· Data 2 weeks agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29