560 River Rd

Richford, VT 05457

$195,000C

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,970 sqft · Built 1900 · SingleFamily · Pending · 111 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,807/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,023
• Tax + insurance: −$325
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$380
• Net cashflow: $80/mo
• Annual: $964/yr
• Cap rate: 6.79%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.77%
• DSCR: 1.08
• 1% rule: 0.93%
• Cash to close: $54,600

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $195k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $80 ($964/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $181k (7.3% below list).
• It's been on market 111 days — a 9% lower offer ($177k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $177k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $21k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $20k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#41 in VT) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• Zoned schools: Sheldon Elementary School (math 32% / reading 42%, grade F, #113 of 192 statewide, top 62%, 335 students, 38% FRL).
• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 17 active listings in the ZIP; 200 units permitted in Franklin County in 2024 (25 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Franklin County population projected to shrink 3% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $55k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Cap rate 6.8% vs local median 4.3% in Richford — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 111 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
• What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
• Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?