560 River Rd · Richford, VT 05457

$195,000

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,970 sqft · SingleFamily · 111 Days on market

Built 1900 6.00 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.5/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +4.8/10.0
• 1% rule +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Huge opportunities await at 560 River Road - a homesteader or nature lovers dream. Over 6 acres of land featuring roughly 700' of River Frontage on the Missisquoi River. The Missisquoi Rail Trail runs through this property as well offering ease of access for outdoor recreation activities. The old brick farmhouse is in need of rehab but perhaps great opportunity for airbnb with its proximity to ski resorts and Montreal, QC. Drilled well and conventional septic recently pumped. Schedule a tour today!

Key facts

• River frontage
• Drilled well
• Conventional septic

Tags

• RIVER FRONTAGE
• MISSISQUOI RAIL TRAIL
• DRILLED WELL
• CONVENTIONAL SEPTIC

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage
• Utilities: Septic system; Drilled well; Circuit breaker electrical service; DSL and high-speed internet available; Cable available
• Home design: Farmhouse style; Existing structure
• Construction: Wood frame construction; Standing seam roof; Built in 1900
• Exterior features: Country setting with mountain and river views and river frontage; Public road frontage (approximately 322 feet); Gravel driveway

Interior

• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Oil heating; Hot water heating
• Interior features: 11 total rooms; Basement with interior access and dirt floor

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $195k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $80 ($964/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $181k (7.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $177k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#41 in VT) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• Zoned schools: Sheldon Elementary School (math 32% / reading 42%, grade F, #113 of 192 statewide, top 62%, 335 students, 38% FRL).
• Market conditions: 17 active listings in the ZIP; 200 units permitted in Franklin County in 2024 (25 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $21k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $20k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Franklin County population projected to shrink 3% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $55k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 111 days — a 9% lower offer ($177k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $177,450 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 111 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
7. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
8. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.93% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.79%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.77%
• DSCR: 1.08
• GRM: 9.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 25.6%
• Equity multiple: 3.04×
• Total profit: $111,344
• Equity at exit: $175,671

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.5%
• Equity multiple: 6.93×
• Total profit: $323,923
• Equity at exit: $378,842

Cash invested: $54,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 41 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Vermont: 41 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause in Burlington (2022); strong habitability.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 05457

• Home prices YoY: 4.0%
• Active inventory: 17
• Price-to-rent: 9.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,807 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,023
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$244 /mo · $2,925/yr
• Insurance: −$81
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$380
• Net cashflow: $80

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,706

Max offer price $195,000

Occupancy floor 91%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $215	-5% $148	+0% $80	+5% $13	+10% $-54
Rent	-10% $-62	-5% $9	+0% $80	+5% $152	+10% $223
Rate	-1.0pp $179	-0.5pp $130	base $80	+0.5pp $30	+1.0pp $-22

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $48,750
• Closing costs: $5,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-05-14
   status Pending
2. 2026-01-22
   listed $195,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X · 24% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 4% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,690
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,923
• − Property taxes: −$2,925
• − Insurance: −$975
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,735
• − Management: −$1,735
• − Depreciation: −$5,673
• Taxable loss: −$2,276
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$546
• After-tax cash flow: $1,510/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

No district data.

Livability — Richford

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #41
• US rank: #10038

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,787

Population outlook (Franklin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 50,374 people
• By 2030: 50,718 · +0.7%
• By 2040: 50,557 · +0.4%
• By 2050: 48,832 · -3.1%
• By 2075: 43,526 · -13.6%
• By 2100: 33,970 · -32.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Two or more races 2% Hispanic / Latino 2% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 13% Romanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · French/Haitian/Cajun 5% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Franklin

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 50.0% · R 47.0% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.8pp toward R · 2008: 24.8pp · 2024: 3.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+3.0 2020: D+9.0 2016: D+3.1 2012: D+23.6 2008: D+24.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 12.56%
• Current HPI: 326.3575
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Pending — PrimeMLS
• 2026-01-22 Listed $195,000 PrimeMLS