44 E Water St

Gettysburg, PA 17325

$209,000F

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,600 sqft · Built 1900 · Other · Pending · 85 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,566/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,096
• Tax + insurance: −$347
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$329
• Net cashflow: $-206/mo
• Annual: $-2,470/yr
• Cap rate: 5.11%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.22%
• DSCR: 0.81
• 1% rule: 0.75%
• Cash to close: $58,520

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $209k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-206 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $173k (17.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $157k (25.1% below list).
• It's been on market 85 days — a 6% lower offer ($196k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $157k (25.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 87/100 on livability (#45 in PA, #253 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, amenities A+, commute A+; Watch: housing C-, employment D.
• Gettysburg Area SD (rural): math 46% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #132 of 539 in PA (top 24%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: James Gettys El Sch (math 52% / reading 67%, grade B-, #377 of 1,518 statewide, top 28%, 331 students, 47% FRL); Gettysburg Area Ms (math 28% / reading 60%, grade D, #202 of 512 statewide, top 40%, 682 students, 43% FRL); Gettysburg Area Hs (math 80% / reading 24%, grade C-, #112 of 437 statewide, top 26%, 1,024 students, 37% FRL) — zoned schools at 43% FRL track the district average.
• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 319 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 403 units permitted in Adams County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Adams County population projected at -10% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 4 sale attempts since 10y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $16k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $163k; 28% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.1% vs local median 2.3% in Gettysburg — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 85 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 25% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.