7 Covered Bridge Ln

Wilmington, NY 12941

$89,999B+

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,508 sqft · Built 1988 · Manufactured · Active · 52 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,465/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$472
• Tax + insurance: −$161
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$308
• Net cashflow: $525/mo
• Annual: $6,297/yr
• Cap rate: 13.29%
• Cash-on-cash: 24.99%
• DSCR: 2.11
• 1% rule: 1.63%
• Cash to close: $25,200

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath manufactured listed at $90k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $525 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $90k).
• It's been on market 52 days — a 3% lower offer ($87k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $87k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($622 loan paydown + $7k appreciation (7.6% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#935 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A, employment A-; Watch: crime D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Ausable Valley Central School District (rural): math 36% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #474 of 590 in NY (top 80%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Ausable Valley High School (math 92% / reading 75%, grade A, #409 of 1,100 statewide, top 39%, 351 students, 50% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 84% at this address vs 44% district-wide (+40 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Ausable Valley Central School District average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: 54 active listings in the ZIP; 218 units permitted in Essex County in 2024 (63 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Essex County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (7.6% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Cap rate 13.3% vs local median 1.1% in Wilmington — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 52 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.