946 Pennygent Ln

Channelview, TX 77530

$229,900D

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,722 sqft · Built 1993 · SingleFamily · Active · 37 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,038/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,206
• Tax + insurance: −$469
• HOA: −$21
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$428
• Net cashflow: $-86/mo
• Annual: $-1,030/yr
• Cap rate: 5.84%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.60%
• DSCR: 0.93
• 1% rule: 0.89%
• Cash to close: $64,372

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $230k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-86 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $215k (6.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $204k (11.4% below list).
• It's been on market 37 days — a 3% lower offer ($223k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $204k (11.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#598 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Channelview ISD (suburban): math 27% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #640 of 826 in TX (top 78%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 70% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: B H Hamblen El (math 30% / reading 32%, grade F, #2,429 of 4,322 statewide, top 57%, 954 students, 83% FRL); Alice Johnson J H (math 23% / reading 22%, grade F, #1,341 of 1,662 statewide, top 82%, 1,189 students, 77% FRL); Channelview H S (math 24% / reading 35%, grade F, #1,112 of 1,632 statewide, top 70%, 2,893 students, 87% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+16.9%/yr); 100 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 5d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 8 sale attempts since 16y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $60k; list at $230k implies a 283% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 4.7% in Channelview — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($62k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 37 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 11% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.