2006 Running Springs Dr

Houston, TX 77339

$265,000D

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,130 sqft · Built 1974 · SingleFamily · Pending · 40 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,146/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,390
• Tax + insurance: −$689
• HOA: −$38
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$451
• Net cashflow: $-421/mo
• Annual: $-5,058/yr
• Cap rate: 4.38%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.82%
• DSCR: 0.70
• 1% rule: 0.81%
• Cash to close: $74,200

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $265k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-421 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $191k (28.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $215k (19.0% below list).
• It's been on market 40 days — a 3% lower offer ($257k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $191k (28.1% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $1k appreciation (0.5% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Humble ISD (urban): math 38% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #262 of 826 in TX (top 32%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Foster El (math 42% / reading 43%, grade F, #1,313 of 4,322 statewide, top 31%, 559 students, 50% FRL); Kingwood Middle (math 39% / reading 44%, grade F, #595 of 1,662 statewide, top 37%, 1,002 students, 48% FRL); Humble H S (math 15% / reading 31%, grade F, #1,348 of 1,632 statewide, top 83%, 2,867 students, 77% FRL) — zoned schools average 58% FRL vs 32% district-wide (26 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.6% of price.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.6%/yr); 316 active listings in the ZIP; 15 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 27d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 47% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts since 22y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• By year 9, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 4.4% vs local median 3.1% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($84k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 40 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 28% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?