2006 Running Springs Dr · Houston, TX 77339

$265,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,130 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 40 Days on market

Built 1974 0.26 ac lot $124/sqft · 17% below area Est $320k · 17% under $38/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +6.7/30.0
• Appreciation +5.2/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• DSCR +1.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Traditional home located on a spacious lot. The home offers a formal living and dining room at the front. These rooms could also be used as a study or a game room. The kitchen and breakfast room are filled with natural light. The focal point of the family room is a fireplace with a large hearth and mantle. There are 3 spacious secondary bedrooms, and the secondary bathroom has double sinks and a door to the tub area. The owner's retreat is located at the rear of the home with a walk-in closet. The bathroom offers a lovely shower. A long driveway provides plenty of parking. The garage was replaced after Hurricane Beryl. The location offers quick access to HWY 59, shopping and local restaurants.

Key facts

• 0.26 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Community pool

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $265k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-421 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $191k (28.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $215k (19.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $191k (28.1% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 4.4% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Humble ISD (urban): math 38% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #262 of 826 in TX (top 32%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Foster El (math 42% / reading 43%, grade F, #1,313 of 4,322 statewide, top 31%, 559 students, 50% FRL); Kingwood Middle (math 39% / reading 44%, grade F, #595 of 1,662 statewide, top 37%, 1,002 students, 48% FRL); Humble H S (math 15% / reading 31%, grade F, #1,348 of 1,632 statewide, top 83%, 2,867 students, 77% FRL) — zoned schools average 58% FRL vs 32% district-wide (26 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.6%/yr); 316 active listings in the ZIP; 15 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 47% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($84k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $1k appreciation (0.5% local appreciation)).
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 9, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 40 days — a 3% lower offer ($257k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 22y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.6% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $190,545 (28.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 40 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 28% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
5. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
9. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.38%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.82%
• DSCR: 0.70
• GRM: 10.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $320,370
• List price: $265,000
• Delta: -17.28%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2006 Running Springs Dr	0.00mi	4/2.5	2,130 (0%)	1mo	$265,000	$124	98
2003 Hidden Creek Dr	0.20mi	4/2.5	2,241 (+5%)	0mo	$298,000	$133	80
1906 Maple Lakes Dr	0.43mi	4/2.5	2,109 (-1%)	1mo	$325,000	$154	76
1618 Stoney Park Dr	0.51mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,039 (-4%)	2mo	$319,900	$157	63
1710 Palomino Ln	0.54mi	4/2.5	2,294 (+8%)	1mo	$360,000	$157	59
2707 Wildridge Dr	0.36mi	4/2.5	2,388 (+12%)	2mo	$315,000	$132	59
1519 Sandy Park Dr	0.57mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,989 (-7%)	3mo	$290,000	$146	55
1707 Sandy Trail Ct	0.43mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,869 (-12%)	1mo	$325,000	$174	54
2202 Parkdale Dr	0.57mi	4/2.0	1,844 (-13%)	1mo	$199,900	$108	50
1946 Shadow Rock Dr	0.63mi	4/2.0	1,892 (-11%)	3mo	$245,000	$129	50
2203 Rolling Meadows Dr	0.51mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,395 (+12%)	2mo	$334,999	$140	47
1418 Summer Rain Dr	0.72mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,335 (+10%)	1mo	$310,000	$133	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

0.48% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.53×
• Total profit: $-34,678
• Equity at exit: $83,329

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.37×
• Total profit: $-46,538
• Equity at exit: $105,410

Cash invested: $74,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77339

• Home prices YoY: 0.2%
• Rents YoY: -0.6%
• Active inventory: 316
• Price-to-rent: 10.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,146 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,390
• Tax from tax record: −$578 /mo · $6,941/yr
• Insurance: −$110
• HOA: −$38
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$451
• Net cashflow: $-421

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,679

Max offer price $190,545

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-271	-5% $-346	+0% $-421	+5% $-496	+10% $-571
Rent	-10% $-591	-5% $-506	+0% $-421	+5% $-337	+10% $-252
Rate	-1.0pp $-288	-0.5pp $-354	base $-421	+0.5pp $-490	+1.0pp $-560

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $66,250
• Closing costs: $7,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 15 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2003 Ridgeway Park Dr Kingwood, TX	4.0	2.5	2477	$1,850	$0.75	45d	1	0.40mi
1735 Wilderness Park Ct Kingwood, TX	3.0	2.5	2172	$2,319	$1.07	26d	1	0.41mi
2230 Lakeville Dr Kingwood, TX	4.0	3.0	2456	$2,400	$0.98	45d	1	0.44mi
2135 Lake Hills Dr Kingwood, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1061	$1,570	$1.48	0d	12	0.75mi
3515 Hidden Pines Dr Kingwood, TX	3.0	2.5	1986	$1,850	$0.93	45d	1	1.07mi
21554 Kings Bend Dr Kingwood, TX	3.0	2.0	1834	$1,806	$0.98	24d	1	1.13mi
21504 Palace Pines Dr Kingwood, TX	3.0	2.5	2264	$2,100	$0.93	7d	1	1.16mi
2215 Silver Falls Dr Kingwood, TX	4.0	2.0	2004	$2,075	$1.04	45d	1	1.19mi
21476 Palace Pines Dr Kingwood, TX	3.0	2.0	1755	$1,899	$1.08	45d	1	1.22mi
21476 Palace Pines Dr Kingwood, TX	3.0	2.0	1755	$1,899	$1.08	0d	1	1.22mi
26108 Knights Tower Ct Kingwood, TX	4.0	2.5	2662	$2,486	$0.93	24d	1	1.26mi
2115 Oak Shores Dr Kingwood, TX	3.0	2.0	1590	$1,800	$1.13	45d	1	1.26mi
21324 Kings Guild Ln Kingwood, TX	4.0	2.5	2506	$2,141	$0.85	45d	1	1.32mi
2222 Riverford Dr Kingwood, TX	3.0	3.0	1908	$1,895	$0.99	26d	1	1.35mi
3806 Village Oaks Dr Kingwood, TX	4.0	2.5	2465	$2,300	$0.93	24d	1	1.48mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $38 · $456/yr

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-05-12
   status Pending 703-char remark

   Show marketing remark (703 chars)

   Traditional home located on a spacious lot. The home offers a formal living and dining room at the front. These rooms could also be used as a study or a game room. The kitchen and breakfast room are filled with natural light. The focal point of the family room is a fireplace with a large hearth and mantle. There are 3 spacious secondary bedrooms, and the secondary bathroom has double sinks and a door to the tub area. The owner's retreat is located at the rear of the home with a walk-in closet. The bathroom offers a lovely shower. A long driveway provides plenty of parking. The garage was replaced after Hurricane Beryl. The location offers quick access to HWY 59, shopping and local restaurants.

2. 2026-05-07
   status Pending 703-char remark

   Show marketing remark (703 chars)

   Traditional home located on a spacious lot. The home offers a formal living and dining room at the front. These rooms could also be used as a study or a game room. The kitchen and breakfast room are filled with natural light. The focal point of the family room is a fireplace with a large hearth and mantle. There are 3 spacious secondary bedrooms, and the secondary bathroom has double sinks and a door to the tub area. The owner's retreat is located at the rear of the home with a walk-in closet. The bathroom offers a lovely shower. A long driveway provides plenty of parking. The garage was replaced after Hurricane Beryl. The location offers quick access to HWY 59, shopping and local restaurants.

3. 2026-04-02
   listed $265,000 Active 703-char remark

   Show marketing remark (703 chars)

   Traditional home located on a spacious lot. The home offers a formal living and dining room at the front. These rooms could also be used as a study or a game room. The kitchen and breakfast room are filled with natural light. The focal point of the family room is a fireplace with a large hearth and mantle. There are 3 spacious secondary bedrooms, and the secondary bathroom has double sinks and a door to the tub area. The owner's retreat is located at the rear of the home with a walk-in closet. The bathroom offers a lovely shower. A long driveway provides plenty of parking. The garage was replaced after Hurricane Beryl. The location offers quick access to HWY 59, shopping and local restaurants.

4. 2005-05-04
   soldstatus
5. 2005-01-21
   historical
6. 2004-10-21
   listed $134,900
7. 1988-01-02
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $6,941 · $578/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,941 · $578/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,747
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,844
• − Property taxes: −$6,941
• − Insurance: −$1,325
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,060
• − Management: −$2,060
• − HOA: −$456
• − Depreciation: −$7,709
• Taxable loss: −$9,647
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,315
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,742/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Humble ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823910
• Math proficiency: 38% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $83,946
• Composite: 38.55/100
• National rank: #4171
• State rank: #262 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 44,538
• Household income: $84,102
• Rent vs Own: 44.1% rent · 55.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 2198.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Hispanic / Latino 24% Two or more races 13% Black 5% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 17%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 77% English-only · Spanish 17% Other Indo-European 2% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.48%
• Current HPI: 233.4147
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.59%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+96.4% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-05-07 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-04-02 Listed $265,000 HARMLS
• 2005-05-04 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2005-01-21 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2004-10-21 Listed $134,900 HARMLS
• 1988-01-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+3.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,941 · +6.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.