803 Kelly St

Jacksonville, TX 75766

$149,000D-

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,102 sqft · Built 1959 · SingleFamily · Active · 70 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,038/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$781
• Tax + insurance: −$185
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$218
• Net cashflow: $-146/mo
• Annual: $-1,757/yr
• Cap rate: 5.11%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.21%
• DSCR: 0.81
• 1% rule: 0.70%
• Cash to close: $41,720

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $149k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-146 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $123k (17.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $104k (30.4% below list).
• It's been on market 70 days — a 6% lower offer ($140k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $104k (30.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#452 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: crime D+, schools F, amenities F.
• Jacksonville ISD (town): math 31% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #534 of 826 in TX (top 65%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 75% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Watch-outs: built in 1959 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 286 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 39 units permitted in Cherokee County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 72% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.1% vs local median 2.0% in Jacksonville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 70 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 30% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1959 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?