803 Kelly St · Jacksonville, TX 75766

$149,000

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,102 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 70 Days on market

Built 1959 $135/sqft · 21% above area Est $182k · 18% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +8.1/30.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.1/10.0
• 1% rule +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Investor opportunity! Rare 0.5+ acre property in a desirable area. Features a garage apartment producing $400/month and an unfinished home ready to complete as your primary residence or rental. Great income and future potential.

Key facts

• Garage apartment
• Unfinished home
• 0.5 acre property

Tags

• 0.5 ACRE PROPERTY
• GARAGE APARTMENT
• UNFINISHED HOME

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $149k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-146 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $123k (17.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $104k (30.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $104k (30.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.1% vs local median 2.1% in Jacksonville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#452 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: crime D+, schools F, amenities F.
• Jacksonville ISD (town): math 31% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #534 of 826 in TX (top 65%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 75% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 286 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 39 units permitted in Cherokee County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 70 days — a 6% lower offer ($140k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1959 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 72% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $103,769 (30.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 70 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 30% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1959 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.70% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.11%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.21%
• DSCR: 0.81
• GRM: 12.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $181,548
• List price: $149,000
• Delta: -17.93%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 9 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
106 Earl St	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,266 (+15%)	12mo	$184,900	$146	28

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -23.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.20×
• Total profit: $-33,496
• Equity at exit: $22,216

10-year hold

• IRR: -18.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.01×
• Total profit: $-41,274
• Equity at exit: $12,883

Cash invested: $41,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75766

• Home prices YoY: -16.5%
• Active inventory: 286
• Price-to-rent: 12.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,038 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$781
• Tax from tax record: −$123 /mo · $1,473/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$218
• Net cashflow: $-146

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,223

Max offer price $123,128

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-62	-5% $-104	+0% $-146	+5% $-189	+10% $-231
Rent	-10% $-228	-5% $-187	+0% $-146	+5% $-105	+10% $-64
Rate	-1.0pp $-71	-0.5pp $-109	base $-146	+0.5pp $-185	+1.0pp $-224

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,250
• Closing costs: $4,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
916 Andrews St Jacksonville, TX	2.0	2.0	1105	$1,050	$0.95	45d	1	0.24mi
127 Sunnydale St Jacksonville, TX	3.0	1.0	960	$975	$1.02	45d	1	0.48mi
640 Canada St Jacksonville, TX	2.0	2.0	1286	$1,150	$0.89	45d	1	0.54mi
421 Talley Nichols Dr Jacksonville, TX	2.0	2.0	964	$939	$0.97	45d	1	0.65mi
1501 S Bolton St Jacksonville, TX	2.0	1.0	850	$785	$0.92	45d	1	0.69mi
110 Woodhaven St Jacksonville, TX	3.0	2.0	1232	$1,400	$1.14	45d	1	0.76mi
400 Prather St Jacksonville, TX	2.0	2.0	1000	$900	$0.90	45d	1	0.99mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $149,000 Active 70 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $149,000 Active 69 DOM
3. 2026-06-19
   days on market $149,000 Active 67 DOM
4. 2026-06-18
   days on market $149,000 Active 66 DOM
5. 2026-06-17
   days on market $149,000 Active 65 DOM
6. 2026-06-16
   days on market $149,000 Active 64 DOM
7. 2026-06-15
   days on market $149,000 Active 63 DOM
8. 2026-06-14
   days on market $149,000 Active 61 DOM
9. 2026-06-12
   days on market $149,000 Active 60 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $149,000 Active 57 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $149,000 Active 56 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $149,000 Active 55 DOM
13. 2026-06-04
    days on market $149,000 Active 51 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $149,000 Active 50 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $149,000 Active 49 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $149,000 Active 48 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $149,000 Active 47 DOM
18. 2026-04-13
    listed $149,000 Active 228-char remark

    Show marketing remark (228 chars)

    Investor opportunity! Rare 0.5+ acre property in a desirable area. Features a garage apartment producing $400/month and an unfinished home ready to complete as your primary residence or rental. Great income and future potential.

19. 1993-05-13
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,473 · $123/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,727 · $227/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,253/yr (+$104/mo · 85.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 72% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,452
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,346
• − Property taxes: −$1,473
• − Insurance: −$745
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$996
• − Management: −$996
• − Depreciation: −$4,335
• Taxable loss: −$4,439
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,065
• After-tax cash flow: $-692/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jacksonville ISD
• NCES district ID: 4824590
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $37,097
• Composite: 29.09/100
• National rank: #6598
• State rank: #534 of 826 in TX

Livability — Jacksonville

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #452
• US rank: #9160

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Jacksonville, TX
• City population: 25,988
• Population (ZIP): 25,988

Population outlook (Cherokee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 51,949 people
• By 2030: 51,984 · +0.1%
• By 2040: 51,780 · -0.3%
• By 2050: 51,085 · -1.7%
• By 2075: 47,418 · -8.7%
• By 2100: 39,464 · -24.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: White 53% Hispanic / Latino 31% Two or more races 16% Black 12% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 29%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 26% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Cherokee

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+62.7) · D 18.3% · R 80.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.5pp toward R · 2008: -43.2pp · 2024: -62.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+62.7 2020: R+55.8 2016: R+56.5 2012: R+51.0 2008: R+43.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -38.95%
• Current HPI: 197.5972
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-13 Listed $149,000 GTAR
• 1993-05-13 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

-1.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,473 · -6.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.