18018 State Route 127 Hwy

Carlyle, IL 62231

$75,000A-

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,144 sqft · Built 1925 · SingleFamily · Active · 63 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,025/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$393
• Tax + insurance: −$87
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$215
• Net cashflow: $330/mo
• Annual: $3,958/yr
• Cap rate: 11.57%
• Cash-on-cash: 18.85%
• DSCR: 1.84
• 1% rule: 1.37%
• Cash to close: $21,000

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $75k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $330 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $75k).
• It's been on market 63 days — a 6% lower offer ($70k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $70k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $8k of equity ($519 loan paydown + $7k appreciation (9.6% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#664 in IL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Carlyle CUSD 1 (town): math 18% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #351 of 620 in IL (top 57%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Carlyle Elementary School (math 27% / reading 42%, grade F, #517 of 2,056 statewide, top 28%, 384 students, 0% FRL); Carlyle Junior High School (math 14% / reading 27%, grade F, #410 of 665 statewide, top 62%, 296 students, 0% FRL); Carlyle High School (math 17% / reading 27%, grade F, #319 of 693 statewide, top 50%, 282 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 38% district-wide (38 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Watch-outs: built in 1925 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 39 active listings in the ZIP; 64 units permitted in Clinton County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Clinton County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $60k; 25% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• At projected returns (9.6% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $21k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$36k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 63 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1925 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.