18018 State Route 127 Hwy · Carlyle, IL 62231

$75,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,144 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 63 Days on market

Built 1925 1.00 ac lot Est $109k · 31% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +9.8/10.0
• 1% rule +8.7/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This location is just a few minutes north of Carlyle with plenty of parking and close to the lake. You have room to park your camper and relax in the backyard or enjoy the screened in front porch of the house. The basement is unfinished along with the unfinished attic. You have plenty of room for storage in the attic, basement, and sheds. This is a great location with plenty of room to expand.

Key facts

• Close to the lake
• Plenty of parking
• Unfinished basement

Tags

• PLENTY OF PARKING
• CLOSE TO THE LAKE
• SCREENED IN FRONT PORCH
• UNFINISHED ATTIC
• UNFINISHED BASEMENT
• PLENTY OF ROOM FOR STORAGE

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Tax exemptions: Homeowner, Returning Vet, Senior

Exterior

• Parking: Gravel parking; Carport; No garage
• Utilities: Septic tank
• Home design: Detached single-family home; Originally built over 90 years ago; Vinyl siding with frame construction
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Frame construction
• Exterior features: Level lot; Lot dimensions approx. 154 x

Interior

• Kitchen: Vinyl-floored kitchen; Pantry
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms (both on the main level)
• Flooring: Hardwood flooring in living, dining and bedrooms; Vinyl flooring in kitchen and other areas
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Propane forced-air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Full, unfinished basement with egress window; Pantry off the kitchen; Gas water heater
• Laundry & utility: Gas water heater (utility)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $75k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $330 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $75k).
• Recommended offer: $70k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#664 in IL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Carlyle CUSD 1 (town): math 18% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #351 of 620 in IL (top 57%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Carlyle Elementary School (math 27% / reading 42%, grade F, #517 of 2,056 statewide, top 28%, 384 students, 0% FRL); Carlyle Junior High School (math 14% / reading 27%, grade F, #410 of 665 statewide, top 62%, 296 students, 0% FRL); Carlyle High School (math 17% / reading 27%, grade F, #319 of 693 statewide, top 50%, 282 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 38% district-wide (38 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 39 active listings in the ZIP; 64 units permitted in Clinton County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $8k of equity ($519 loan paydown + $7k appreciation (9.6% local appreciation)).
• Clinton County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (9.6% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $21k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$36k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 63 days — a 6% lower offer ($70k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $60k; 25% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1925 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $70,500 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 63 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1925 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.37% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.57%
• Cash-on-cash: 18.85%
• DSCR: 1.84
• GRM: 6.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $108,680
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
18018 State Route 127 Hwy	0.00mi	2/1.0	1,144 (0%)	4mo	$65,000	$57	97
17440 Rt 127 N	0.57mi	2/1.0	1,158 (+1%)	10mo	$109,900	$95	64

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

9.6% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 37.6%
• Equity multiple: 3.85×
• Total profit: $59,798
• Equity at exit: $65,386

10-year hold

• IRR: 32.6%
• Equity multiple: 8.57×
• Total profit: $159,053
• Equity at exit: $138,749

Cash invested: $21,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 62231

• Home prices YoY: 4.9%
• Active inventory: 39
• Price-to-rent: 6.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,025 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$393
• Tax from tax record: −$56 /mo · $668/yr
• Insurance: −$31
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$215
• Net cashflow: $330

Break-even live

Break-even rent $608

Max offer price $75,000

Occupancy floor 63%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $372	-5% $351	+0% $330	+5% $309	+10% $287
Rent	-10% $249	-5% $289	+0% $330	+5% $370	+10% $411
Rate	-1.0pp $368	-0.5pp $349	base $330	+0.5pp $310	+1.0pp $291

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $18,750
• Closing costs: $2,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-05-22
   listed $75,000 Active
2. 2026-02-18
   soldstatus Closed

   Show marketing remark (396 chars)

   This location is just a few minutes north of Carlyle with plenty of parking and close to the lake. You have room to park your camper and relax in the backyard or enjoy the screened in front porch of the house. The basement is unfinished along with the unfinished attic. You have plenty of room for storage in the attic, basement, and sheds. This is a great location with plenty of room to expand.

3. 2026-02-18
   soldstatus Closed 396-char remark

   Show marketing remark (396 chars)

   This location is just a few minutes north of Carlyle with plenty of parking and close to the lake. You have room to park your camper and relax in the backyard or enjoy the screened in front porch of the house. The basement is unfinished along with the unfinished attic. You have plenty of room for storage in the attic, basement, and sheds. This is a great location with plenty of room to expand.

4. 2026-01-17
   historical Contingent - Continue to Show

   Show marketing remark (396 chars)

   This location is just a few minutes north of Carlyle with plenty of parking and close to the lake. You have room to park your camper and relax in the backyard or enjoy the screened in front porch of the house. The basement is unfinished along with the unfinished attic. You have plenty of room for storage in the attic, basement, and sheds. This is a great location with plenty of room to expand.

5. 2026-01-17
   historical Active Under Contract 396-char remark

   Show marketing remark (396 chars)

   This location is just a few minutes north of Carlyle with plenty of parking and close to the lake. You have room to park your camper and relax in the backyard or enjoy the screened in front porch of the house. The basement is unfinished along with the unfinished attic. You have plenty of room for storage in the attic, basement, and sheds. This is a great location with plenty of room to expand.

6. 2026-01-06
   historical
7. 2025-12-10
   price $75,000 396-char remark

   Show marketing remark (396 chars)

   This location is just a few minutes north of Carlyle with plenty of parking and close to the lake. You have room to park your camper and relax in the backyard or enjoy the screened in front porch of the house. The basement is unfinished along with the unfinished attic. You have plenty of room for storage in the attic, basement, and sheds. This is a great location with plenty of room to expand.

8. 2025-12-10
   price

   Show marketing remark (396 chars)

   This location is just a few minutes north of Carlyle with plenty of parking and close to the lake. You have room to park your camper and relax in the backyard or enjoy the screened in front porch of the house. The basement is unfinished along with the unfinished attic. You have plenty of room for storage in the attic, basement, and sheds. This is a great location with plenty of room to expand.

9. 2025-10-17
   price $81,000 396-char remark

   Show marketing remark (396 chars)

   This location is just a few minutes north of Carlyle with plenty of parking and close to the lake. You have room to park your camper and relax in the backyard or enjoy the screened in front porch of the house. The basement is unfinished along with the unfinished attic. You have plenty of room for storage in the attic, basement, and sheds. This is a great location with plenty of room to expand.

10. 2025-10-17
    price

    Show marketing remark (396 chars)

    This location is just a few minutes north of Carlyle with plenty of parking and close to the lake. You have room to park your camper and relax in the backyard or enjoy the screened in front porch of the house. The basement is unfinished along with the unfinished attic. You have plenty of room for storage in the attic, basement, and sheds. This is a great location with plenty of room to expand.

11. 2025-09-18
    listed $89,900 Active 396-char remark

    Show marketing remark (396 chars)

    This location is just a few minutes north of Carlyle with plenty of parking and close to the lake. You have room to park your camper and relax in the backyard or enjoy the screened in front porch of the house. The basement is unfinished along with the unfinished attic. You have plenty of room for storage in the attic, basement, and sheds. This is a great location with plenty of room to expand.

12. 2025-09-17
    listed Active
13. 2007-01-09
    soldstatus $60,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IL · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $668 · $56/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,185 · $99/mo
• Expected delta: +$517/yr (+$43/mo · 77.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 4% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,304
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,201
• − Property taxes: −$668
• − Insurance: −$375
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$984
• − Management: −$984
• − Depreciation: −$2,182
• Taxable income: $2,910
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$698
• After-tax cash flow: $3,260/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Carlyle CUSD 1
• NCES district ID: 1708460
• Math proficiency: 18% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 30% ▼ -16.00%
• Median HH income: $50,003
• Composite: 21.18/100
• National rank: #8421
• State rank: #351 of 620 in IL

Livability — Carlyle

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #664
• US rank: #13638

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 6,521

Population outlook (Clinton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 37,663 people
• By 2030: 37,194 · -1.2%
• By 2040: 35,566 · -5.6%
• By 2050: 32,950 · -12.5%
• By 2075: 26,403 · -29.9%
• By 2100: 19,267 · -48.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Two or more races 4% Black 1% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 7% Romanian 3% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Clinton

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+51.8) · D 23.1% · R 75.0% · Other 1.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -42.0pp toward R · 2008: -9.8pp · 2024: -51.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+51.8 2020: R+51.1 2016: R+49.0 2012: R+30.0 2008: R+9.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 9.60%
• Current HPI: 207.22
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

+25.0% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-22 Listed $75,000 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-18 Sold (MLS) — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-18 Sold (MLS) — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-17 Contingent — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-17 Contingent — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-06 Listing Removed — RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-10 Price Changed $75,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-10 Price Changed — RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-17 Price Changed $81,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-17 Price Changed — RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-18 Listed $89,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-17 Listed — RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-01-09 Sold (Public Records) $60,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-4.4%/yr

Latest (2024): $668 · -7.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.