27 Shaw St

Lowell, MA 01851

$650,000D+

7 bd · 2.0 ba · 3,064 sqft · Built 1900 · MultiFamily · Active · 60 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $5,516/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,409
• Tax + insurance: −$833
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,158
• Net cashflow: $116/mo
• Annual: $1,389/yr
• Cap rate: 6.51%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.76%
• DSCR: 1.03
• 1% rule: 0.85%
• Cash to close: $182,000

Investor read

• This is a 2 × 4-bed/1.0-bath units multifamily listed at $650k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $116 ($1k/yr) — positive. Per door: $58/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $552k (15.1% below list).
• It's been on market 60 days — a 3% lower offer ($630k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $552k (15.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $20k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#36 in MA, #1,677 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
• Lowell (suburban): math 20% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #277 of 302 in MA (top 92%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Abraham Lincoln (math 17% / reading 32%, grade F, #721 of 938 statewide, top 79%, 492 students, 0% FRL); Lowell High (math 40% / reading 50%, grade D-, #201 of 343 statewide, top 59%, 3,167 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 64% district-wide (64 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.2%/yr); 22 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 3,670 units permitted in Middlesex County in 2024 (2,611 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Middlesex County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 5 sale attempts since 31y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $55k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $112k; list at $650k implies a 480% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 2.9% in Lowell — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $5,516/mo this rent would consume 72% of the median local household income ($92k/yr) (locally 1866% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 60 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
• What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
• Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.