102 Thomas Rd

Dover, TN 37058

$249,000D-

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 192 sqft · Built 2022 · Other · Active · 92 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,389/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,306
• Tax + insurance: −$279
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$292
• Net cashflow: $-488/mo
• Annual: $-5,855/yr
• Cap rate: 3.94%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.40%
• DSCR: 0.63
• 1% rule: 0.56%
• Cash to close: $69,720

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $249k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-488 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $163k (34.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $139k (44.2% below list).
• It's been on market 92 days — a 9% lower offer ($227k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $139k (44.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $27k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $25k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#98 in TN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• Stewart County (rural): math 36% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #30 of 139 in TN (top 22%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Dover Elementary (math 40% / reading 40%, grade F, #226 of 952 statewide, top 24%, 495 students, 0% FRL); Stewart Co High School (math 2% / reading 32%, grade F, #215 of 332 statewide, top 67%, 627 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 50% district-wide (50 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 124 active listings in the ZIP; 15 units permitted in Stewart County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Stewart County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 3 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $31k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $6k; list at $249k implies a 3731% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$43k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 92 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 44% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.