102 Thomas Rd · Dover, TN 37058

$249,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 192 sqft · Other public records · 91 Days on market

Built 2022 0.80 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +5.9/30.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.6/10.0
• DSCR +0.3/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Attention Investors - 2 Tiny Homes on 1 Lot! Great vacation and/or rental property being so close to LBL, Lake Barkley, and KY Lake. The first tiny home offers 398 sq. ft. with 2BR / 1.5BA with loft area, separate living room, L-shaped kitchen, stacked washer/dryer, large covered front porch partially screened and huge extended deck. The second tiny home offers 196 sq. ft. with lofted bedroom, full bath, living room and kitchen. Each home has their own septic, electric meter and storage unit. They share a water meter. The property is almost 1 acre and within 1/2 mile to Land Between the Lakes. Perfect for anyone wanting a weekend getaway. Come experience everything LBL has to offer, horseback riding, ATV park, hunting, fishing, kayaking, biking trails and much more. No restrictions, No HOA, No Zoning. Financing Options Available!

Key facts

• Private deck
• Turnkey setup
• Hgtv-featured unit

Tags

• TURNKEY SETUP
• HGTV-FEATURED UNIT
• COVERED FRONT AND BACK PORCHES
• WASHER AND DRYER UNITS
• LOFT SLEEPING AREA
• PRIVATE DECK

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot size approximately 0.8 acres

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway; Gravel parking; Concrete surfaces
• Utilities: Public water; Private sewer; Electricity available; Water available
• Home design: Manufactured on land (residential); One story; Corner lot
• Construction: Other construction materials; Existing structure
• Exterior features: Deck; Covered porch

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric oven and electric range; Dishwasher; Refrigerator; Stainless steel appliances
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (all on the main level)
• Flooring: Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Other heating; Electric cooling
• Interior features: Stainless steel appliances; Electric oven and electric range; Dishwasher; Refrigerator; Washer and dryer
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $249k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-488 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $163k (34.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $139k (44.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $139k (44.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#98 in TN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• Stewart County (rural): math 36% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #30 of 139 in TN (top 22%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Dover Elementary (math 40% / reading 40%, grade F, #226 of 952 statewide, top 24%, 495 students, 0% FRL); Stewart Co High School (math 2% / reading 32%, grade F, #215 of 332 statewide, top 67%, 627 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 50% district-wide (50 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 124 active listings in the ZIP; 15 units permitted in Stewart County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $27k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $25k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Stewart County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$43k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 91 days — a 9% lower offer ($227k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $31k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $6k; list at $249k implies a 3731% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $138,875 (44.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 91 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 44% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.56% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.94%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.40%
• DSCR: 0.63
• GRM: 14.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 18.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.50×
• Total profit: $104,474
• Equity at exit: $224,319

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.1%
• Equity multiple: 5.76×
• Total profit: $331,971
• Equity at exit: $483,752

Cash invested: $69,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Tennessee: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

14-day notice (URLTA); generally landlord-favorable; Nashville court paced moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 37058

• Home prices YoY: 9.3%
• Active inventory: 124
• Price-to-rent: 14.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,389 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,306
• Tax from tax record: −$176 /mo · $2,106/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$292
• Net cashflow: $-488

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,006

Max offer price $162,807

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-347	-5% $-417	+0% $-488	+5% $-558	+10% $-629
Rent	-10% $-598	-5% $-543	+0% $-488	+5% $-433	+10% $-378
Rate	-1.0pp $-363	-0.5pp $-425	base $-488	+0.5pp $-552	+1.0pp $-618

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,250
• Closing costs: $7,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $249,000 Active 91 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $249,000 Active 89 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $249,000 Active 88 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $249,000 Active 87 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $249,000 Active 86 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $249,000 Active 84 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $249,000 Active 83 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $249,000 Active 80 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $249,000 Active 79 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $249,000 Active 78 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $249,000 Active 77 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $249,000 Active 74 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $249,000 Active 73 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    remarks 693-char remark
15. 2026-06-02
    price $249,000 Active 72 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $277,900 Active 72 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $277,900 Active 71 DOM
18. 2026-05-11
    price $277,900
19. 2026-03-21
    listed $279,900 Active
20. 2024-07-31
    historical 841-char remark

    Show marketing remark (841 chars)

    Attention Investors - 2 Tiny Homes on 1 Lot! Great vacation and/or rental property being so close to LBL, Lake Barkley, and KY Lake. The first tiny home offers 398 sq. ft. with 2BR / 1.5BA with loft area, separate living room, L-shaped kitchen, stacked washer/dryer, large covered front porch partially screened and huge extended deck. The second tiny home offers 196 sq. ft. with lofted bedroom, full bath, living room and kitchen. Each home has their own septic, electric meter and storage unit. They share a water meter. The property is almost 1 acre and within 1/2 mile to Land Between the Lakes. Perfect for anyone wanting a weekend getaway. Come experience everything LBL has to offer, horseback riding, ATV park, hunting, fishing, kayaking, biking trails and much more. No restrictions, No HOA, No Zoning. Financing Options Available!

21. 2024-04-03
    price $297,900
22. 2024-04-02
    price $297,900 841-char remark

    Show marketing remark (841 chars)

    Attention Investors - 2 Tiny Homes on 1 Lot! Great vacation and/or rental property being so close to LBL, Lake Barkley, and KY Lake. The first tiny home offers 398 sq. ft. with 2BR / 1.5BA with loft area, separate living room, L-shaped kitchen, stacked washer/dryer, large covered front porch partially screened and huge extended deck. The second tiny home offers 196 sq. ft. with lofted bedroom, full bath, living room and kitchen. Each home has their own septic, electric meter and storage unit. They share a water meter. The property is almost 1 acre and within 1/2 mile to Land Between the Lakes. Perfect for anyone wanting a weekend getaway. Come experience everything LBL has to offer, horseback riding, ATV park, hunting, fishing, kayaking, biking trails and much more. No restrictions, No HOA, No Zoning. Financing Options Available!

23. 2024-01-12
    listed $299,900 Active

    Show marketing remark (841 chars)

    Attention Investors - 2 Tiny Homes on 1 Lot! Great vacation and/or rental property being so close to LBL, Lake Barkley, and KY Lake. The first tiny home offers 398 sq. ft. with 2BR / 1.5BA with loft area, separate living room, L-shaped kitchen, stacked washer/dryer, large covered front porch partially screened and huge extended deck. The second tiny home offers 196 sq. ft. with lofted bedroom, full bath, living room and kitchen. Each home has their own septic, electric meter and storage unit. They share a water meter. The property is almost 1 acre and within 1/2 mile to Land Between the Lakes. Perfect for anyone wanting a weekend getaway. Come experience everything LBL has to offer, horseback riding, ATV park, hunting, fishing, kayaking, biking trails and much more. No restrictions, No HOA, No Zoning. Financing Options Available!

24. 2024-01-12
    listed $299,900 Active 841-char remark

    Show marketing remark (841 chars)

    Attention Investors - 2 Tiny Homes on 1 Lot! Great vacation and/or rental property being so close to LBL, Lake Barkley, and KY Lake. The first tiny home offers 398 sq. ft. with 2BR / 1.5BA with loft area, separate living room, L-shaped kitchen, stacked washer/dryer, large covered front porch partially screened and huge extended deck. The second tiny home offers 196 sq. ft. with lofted bedroom, full bath, living room and kitchen. Each home has their own septic, electric meter and storage unit. They share a water meter. The property is almost 1 acre and within 1/2 mile to Land Between the Lakes. Perfect for anyone wanting a weekend getaway. Come experience everything LBL has to offer, horseback riding, ATV park, hunting, fishing, kayaking, biking trails and much more. No restrictions, No HOA, No Zoning. Financing Options Available!

25. 2003-04-04
    soldstatus $6,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TN · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,106 · $176/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,106 · $176/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 9% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,665
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,948
• − Property taxes: −$2,106
• − Insurance: −$1,245
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,333
• − Management: −$1,333
• − Depreciation: −$7,244
• Taxable loss: −$10,544
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,531
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,325/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Stewart County
• NCES district ID: 4703960
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $41,035
• Composite: 29.92/100
• National rank: #6383
• State rank: #30 of 139 in TN

Livability — Dover

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #98
• US rank: #10364

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 7,369

Population outlook (Stewart County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 13,019 people
• By 2030: 12,780 · -1.8%
• By 2040: 12,152 · -6.7%
• By 2050: 11,484 · -11.8%
• By 2075: 10,249 · -21.3%
• By 2100: 9,338 · -28.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 2% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 7% Serbian 4% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 2% · South Korea
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Korean 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Stewart

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+63.9) · D 17.5% · R 81.4% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -55.1pp toward R · 2008: -8.8pp · 2024: -63.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+63.9 2020: R+59.0 2016: R+50.0 2012: R+17.5 2008: R+8.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 24.47%
• Current HPI: 286.5122
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.78%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	3	$91B
▸Retail	3	$72B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$88B
▸Paper / Packaging	1	$19B
▸Insurance	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$12B

Price history

+4175.4% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Price Changed $277,900 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-21 Listed $279,900 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-07-31 Listing Removed — REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-04-03 Price Changed $297,900 TVAR
• 2024-04-02 Price Changed $297,900 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-01-12 Listed $299,900 TVAR
• 2024-01-12 Listed $299,900 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2003-04-04 Sold (Public Records) $6,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+32.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,106 · +131.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.