39 Water St

Worcester, NY 12197

$137,400D+

6 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,500 sqft · Built 1900 · SingleFamily · Pending · 185 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,456/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$721
• Tax + insurance: −$489
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$306
• Net cashflow: $-59/mo
• Annual: $-708/yr
• Cap rate: 6.87%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.06%
• DSCR: 1.09
• 1% rule: 1.06%
• Cash to close: $38,472

Investor read

• This is a 6-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $137k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-59 ($-708/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $127k (7.6% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $137k).
• It's been on market 185 days — a 12% lower offer ($121k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $121k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($950 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (1.9% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#1,037 in NY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living A; Watch: health & safety C-, schools D-, crime F.
• Worcester Central School District (rural): math 40% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #642 of 755 in NY (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.7% of price; flood insurance adds $125/mo; built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 24 active listings in the ZIP; 133 units permitted in Otsego County in 2024 (10 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Otsego County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 8 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (1.9% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $38k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 9, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone A (mandatory federal flood insurance) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 185 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?