39 Water St · Worcester, NY 12197

$137,400

6 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,500 sqft · SingleFamily · 185 Days on market

Built 1900 0.29 ac lot Est $130k · 6% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.9/30.0
• Appreciation +5.9/10.0
• 1% rule +5.6/10.0
• DSCR +4.9/10.0
• ARV discount +4.9/15.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Timeless Victorian elegance meets modern family fun. This sprawling 2,500-square-foot masterpiece sits proudly on a large corner lot, offering the kind of space and character rarely found today. From the sun-drenched living room and formal dining area to the massive country kitchen, every inch of this 6-bedroom home is designed for gathering. A rare first-floor bedroom with an ensuite bath offers convenience, while five additional bedrooms upstairs provide room for everyone. Outside, your private oasis awaits: choose between two breezy porches for your morning coffee, or head to the fenced-in backyard for a dip in the pool and s'mores by the firepit. All this, just a short stroll from Worce

Key facts

• Country kitchen
• First-floor bedroom
• Formal dining room

Tags

• LARGE CORNER LOT
• FORMAL DINING ROOM
• COUNTRY KITCHEN
• FIRST-FLOOR BEDROOM
• FENCED-IN BACK YARD
• ABOVE GROUND POOL

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 6-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $137k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-59 ($-708/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $127k (7.6% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $137k).
• Recommended offer: $121k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#1,037 in NY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living A; Watch: health & safety C-, schools D-, crime F.
• Worcester Central School District (rural): math 40% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #642 of 755 in NY (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 24 active listings in the ZIP; 133 units permitted in Otsego County in 2024 (10 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($950 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (1.9% local appreciation)).
• Otsego County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (1.9% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $38k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 9, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 185 days — a 12% lower offer ($121k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 8 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.7% of price; flood insurance adds $125/mo; built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone A (mandatory federal flood insurance) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $120,912 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 185 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
5. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
6. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
7. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
8. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
9. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
10. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
11. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
12. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
13. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.06% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.87%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.06%
• DSCR: 1.09
• GRM: 7.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $130,000
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
39 Water St	0.00mi	6/2.5	2,500 (0%)	1mo	$130,000	$52	99

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

1.88% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 2.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.13×
• Total profit: $5,007
• Equity at exit: $53,306

10-year hold

• IRR: 6.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.88×
• Total profit: $33,745
• Equity at exit: $76,086

Cash invested: $38,472 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12197

• Home prices YoY: 0.6%
• Active inventory: 24
• Price-to-rent: 7.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,456 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$721
• Tax from tax record: −$306 /mo · $3,673/yr
• Insurance: −$57
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$125 /mo · $1,502/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$306
• Net cashflow: $-59

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,530

Max offer price $126,971

Occupancy floor 99%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $19	-5% $-20	+0% $-59	+5% $-98	+10% $-137
Rent	-10% $-174	-5% $-117	+0% $-59	+5% $-2	+10% $56
Rate	-1.0pp $10	-0.5pp $-24	base $-59	+0.5pp $-95	+1.0pp $-131

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,350
• Closing costs: $4,122
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-03-17
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-13
   status Active
3. 2026-03-12
   historical
4. 2026-02-06
   listed $137,400 Active
5. 2025-11-11
   price $137,400
6. 2025-09-13
   price $139,900
7. 2025-09-12
   listed $144,900 Active
8. 2025-09-05
   historical Contingent
9. 2025-04-29
   status Pending
10. 2025-04-29
    historical
11. 2025-01-16
    listed $144,900 Active
12. 2024-12-31
    historical
13. 2024-10-16
    price $149,900
14. 2024-08-24
    price $169,500
15. 2024-07-16
    price $177,500
16. 2024-05-22
    listed $179,500 Active
17. 2022-01-27
    soldstatus $167,500
18. 2022-01-18
    soldstatus $167,500
19. 2022-01-18
    soldstatus $167,500
20. 2022-01-12
    soldstatus $167,500
21. 2021-05-18
    listed $179,900
22. 2021-05-18
    listed $179,900
23. 2021-05-18
    listed $179,900
24. 1997-08-04
    soldstatus $58,400

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,673 · $306/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,673 · $306/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 10/10 Extreme FEMA zone A · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 8 d/yr ≥89°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,469
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,697
• − Property taxes: −$3,673
• − Insurance: −$2,190
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,398
• − Management: −$1,398
• − Depreciation: −$3,997
• Taxable loss: −$2,882
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$692
• After-tax cash flow: $-17/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Worcester Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3631740
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,846
• Composite: 36.52/100
• National rank: #9306
• State rank: #642 of 755 in NY

Livability — Worcester

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #1037
• US rank: #20500

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime F Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Worcester, NY
• City population: 2,275
• Population (ZIP): 2,275

Population outlook (Otsego County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 57,987 people
• By 2030: 55,403 · -4.5%
• By 2040: 50,336 · -13.2%
• By 2050: 45,715 · -21.2%
• By 2075: 38,769 · -33.1%
• By 2100: 33,468 · -42.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (83%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 83% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Romanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 7%

Political lean MEDSL · Otsego

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+7.9) · D 46.1% · R 53.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -13.8pp toward R · 2008: 5.9pp · 2024: -7.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+7.9 2020: R+5.0 2016: R+13.0 2012: D+2.0 2008: D+5.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.88%
• Current HPI: 341.3108
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+135.3% since first listed

24 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-17 Pending — Global MLS
• 2026-03-13 Relisted — Global MLS
• 2026-03-12 Listing Removed — Global MLS
• 2026-02-06 Listed $137,400 HVCRMLS
• 2025-11-11 Price Changed $137,400 Global MLS
• 2025-09-13 Price Changed $139,900 Global MLS
• 2025-09-12 Listed $144,900 Global MLS
• 2025-09-05 Contingent — Global MLS
• 2025-04-29 Pending — Global MLS
• 2025-04-29 Listing Removed — Global MLS
• 2025-01-16 Listed $144,900 Global MLS
• 2024-12-31 Listing Removed — UNYREIS
• 2024-10-16 Price Changed $149,900 UNYREIS
• 2024-08-24 Price Changed $169,500 UNYREIS
• 2024-07-16 Price Changed $177,500 UNYREIS
• 2024-05-22 Listed $179,500 UNYREIS
• 2022-01-27 Sold (Public Records) $167,500 Public Records
• 2022-01-18 Sold (MLS) $167,500 ODBOR
• 2022-01-18 Sold (MLS) $167,500 UNYREIS
• 2022-01-12 Sold (MLS) $167,500 Global MLS
• 2021-05-18 Listed $179,900 Global MLS
• 2021-05-18 Listed $179,900 ODBOR
• 2021-05-18 Listed $179,900 UNYREIS
• 1997-08-04 Sold (Public Records) $58,400 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,673 · +1.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.