409 Simmons St

Fayetteville, NC 28301

$105,000B+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,040 sqft · Built 2006 · SingleFamily · Pending · 46 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,531/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$551
• Tax + insurance: −$192
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$321
• Net cashflow: $467/mo
• Annual: $5,601/yr
• Cap rate: 11.63%
• Cash-on-cash: 19.05%
• DSCR: 1.85
• 1% rule: 1.46%
• Cash to close: $29,400

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $105k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $467 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $105k).
• It's been on market 46 days — a 3% lower offer ($102k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $102k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $726 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#45 in NC, #4,031 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, employment D-.
• Cumberland County Schools (urban): math 32% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #126 of 178 in NC (top 71%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Douglas Byrd Middle (math 13% / reading 30%, grade F, #422 of 475 statewide, top 89%, 935 students, 100% FRL); Douglas Byrd High (math 22% / reading 42%, grade F, #445 of 535 statewide, top 84%, 940 students, 99% FRL) — zoned schools average 99% FRL vs 55% district-wide (45 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.5%/yr); 132 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 1,125 units permitted in Cumberland County in 2024 (104 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $45k (30%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.5% rent growth), your $29k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; major wind risk, 78% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 11.6% vs local median 4.9% in Fayetteville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $1,531/mo this rent would consume 47% of the median local household income ($39k/yr) (locally 1389% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 46 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.