409 Simmons St · Fayetteville, NC 28301

$105,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,040 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 46 Days on market

Built 2006 Est $160k · 34% under ↓ 48% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.6/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

3BR/2BA INVESTMENT Opportunity in Fayetteville! This well-laid-out home offers three bedrooms and two full baths. Great rental potential. Conveniently situated near downtown Fayetteville, near shopping, and major roadways, The Fayetteville Community Garden is down the street. Sold strictly as-is, where-is. Normal Disclosures not required for Court Ordered sales. BRING ALL OFFERS This is a court ordered sale and special rules apply. May not be suitable for some loans. Property to be sold "as is" and all personal property to remain. Utilities will not be turned on. >>>>>>>>>We have entered the Upset bid period. >>>>>>>>>>>&

Key facts

• Built 2006
• Listed 46 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single Family Residence; Residential property
• Construction: Vinyl siding
• Exterior features: Cleared, level lot; Publicly maintained road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Free-standing electric range; Refrigerator; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: Total of 6 rooms (bedroom count not specified)
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump heating; Central electric air conditioning
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Washer hookup on main level; No basement
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup on main level

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $105k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $467 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $105k).
• Recommended offer: $102k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.6% vs local median 4.9% in Fayetteville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#45 in NC, #4,031 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, employment D-.
• Cumberland County Schools (urban): math 32% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #126 of 178 in NC (top 71%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Douglas Byrd Middle (math 13% / reading 30%, grade F, #422 of 475 statewide, top 89%, 935 students, 100% FRL); Douglas Byrd High (math 22% / reading 42%, grade F, #445 of 535 statewide, top 84%, 940 students, 99% FRL) — zoned schools average 99% FRL vs 55% district-wide (45 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.5%/yr); 132 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 1,125 units permitted in Cumberland County in 2024 (104 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $1,531/mo this rent would consume 47% of the median local household income ($39k/yr) (locally 1389% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $726 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.5% rent growth), your $29k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 46 days — a 3% lower offer ($102k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $45k (30%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; major wind risk, 78% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $101,850 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 46 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.46% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.63%
• Cash-on-cash: 19.05%
• DSCR: 1.85
• GRM: 5.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $160,160
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
316 Wright St	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,014 (-2%)	14mo	$156,000	$154	73

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.49% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 11.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.46×
• Total profit: $13,505
• Equity at exit: $15,656

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.81×
• Total profit: $53,319
• Equity at exit: $9,078

Cash invested: $29,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 28301

• Home prices YoY: -12.5%
• Rents YoY: 3.5%
• Active inventory: 132
• Price-to-rent: 5.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,531 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$551
• Tax from tax record: −$148 /mo · $1,779/yr
• Insurance: −$44
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$321
• Net cashflow: $467

Break-even live

Break-even rent $940

Max offer price $105,000

Occupancy floor 65%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $26,250
• Closing costs: $3,150
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
326 Hawley Ln Fayetteville, NC	2.0	1.0	786	$1,300	$1.65	23d	1	0.72mi
159 Maxwell St Unit 200 Fayetteville, NC	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,450	$1.45	23d	1	0.79mi
123 Anderson St Fayetteville, NC	2.0	2.0	1500	$1,800	$1.20	23d	1	0.87mi
123 Pennmark Pl Fayetteville, NC	2.0	2.5	1380	$1,600	$1.16	13d	1	0.87mi
450 Hay St Fayetteville, NC	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	799	$1,745	$2.18	13d	3	1.02mi
314 Bradford Ave Fayetteville, NC	3.0	2.0	1000	$1,380	$1.38	23d	1	1.25mi
452 Cityview Ln Fayetteville, NC	2.0	2.5	1088	$1,200	$1.10	23d	1	1.26mi
421 Cityview Ln Fayetteville, NC	2.0	2.5	1050	$1,700	$1.62	23d	1	1.27mi
807 Branson St #2 Fayetteville, NC	3.0	2.0	1304	$1,350	$1.04	23d	1	1.28mi
718 Dwain Dr Fayetteville, NC	3.0	1.0	962	$1,250	$1.30	23d	1	1.29mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-15
   price $105,000 Pending 46 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   price $99,671 Pending 46 DOM
3. 2026-06-02
   price $94,925 Pending 46 DOM
4. 2026-05-05
   price $78,750
5. 2026-05-01
   status Pending
6. 2026-05-01
   price $86,100
7. 2026-05-01
   price $90,405
8. 2026-04-24
   price $110,000
9. 2026-04-06
   price $140,000
10. 2026-03-30
    status Active
11. 2026-03-30
    price $150,000
12. 2026-03-20
    status Pending
13. 2026-03-20
    price $157,500
14. 2026-03-06
    listed $150,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,779 · $148/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,779 · $148/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (shaded) · 74% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 7/10 Severe 78% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,370
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,882
• − Property taxes: −$1,779
• − Insurance: −$525
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,470
• − Management: −$1,470
• − Depreciation: −$3,055
• Taxable income: $4,191
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,006
• After-tax cash flow: $4,595/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cumberland County Schools
• NCES district ID: 3700011
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $44,168
• Composite: 31.0/100
• National rank: #6096
• State rank: #126 of 178 in NC

Livability — Fayetteville

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #45
• US rank: #4031

Category grades

Amenities B- Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Fayetteville, NC
• County: Cumberland County · 265,314 people
• City population: 226,118
• Metro: Fayetteville, NC
• Population (ZIP): 16,798
• Household income: $39,198
• Rent vs Own: 64.7% rent · 35.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 1389.0

Population outlook (Cumberland County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 330,855 people
• By 2030: 333,523 · +0.8%
• By 2040: 335,583 · +1.4%
• By 2050: 335,325 · +1.4%
• By 2075: 342,853 · +3.6%
• By 2100: 340,698 · +3.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 68% White 19% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 5%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 1% Slovak 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Cumberland

• 2024 margin: D (+13.4) · D 56.1% · R 42.7% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.3pp toward R · 2008: 17.7pp · 2024: 13.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+13.4 2020: D+16.6 2016: D+16.0 2012: D+19.7 2008: D+17.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -37.92%
• Current HPI: 265.98
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.49%
• Metro: Fayetteville, NC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

-47.5% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-05 Price Changed $78,750 LPRMLS
• 2026-05-01 Pending — LPRMLS
• 2026-05-01 Price Changed $90,405 LPRMLS
• 2026-05-01 Price Changed $86,100 LPRMLS
• 2026-04-24 Price Changed $110,000 LPRMLS
• 2026-04-06 Price Changed $140,000 LPRMLS
• 2026-03-30 Relisted — LPRMLS
• 2026-03-30 Price Changed $150,000 LPRMLS
• 2026-03-20 Pending — LPRMLS
• 2026-03-20 Price Changed $157,500 LPRMLS
• 2026-03-06 Listed $150,000 LPRMLS

Property tax history

+5.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,779 · +27.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.