866 County Line Rd

Keysville, VA 23947

$89,900B+

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 960 sqft · Built 1990 · SingleFamily · Pending · 13 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,586/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$471
• Tax + insurance: −$63
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$333
• Net cashflow: $719/mo
• Annual: $8,624/yr
• Cap rate: 15.89%
• Cash-on-cash: 34.26%
• DSCR: 2.52
• 1% rule: 1.76%
• Cash to close: $25,172

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $90k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $719 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $90k).
• Only 13 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $622 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#261 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Lunenburg County Public School District (rural): math 33% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #110 of 131 in VA (top 84%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Victoria Elementary (math 37% / reading 57%, grade D-, #794 of 1,108 statewide, top 74%, 378 students, 99% FRL); Lunenburg Middle (math 23% / reading 63%, grade D-, #288 of 342 statewide, top 85%, 332 students, 98% FRL); Central High (math 57% / reading 67%, grade B-, #231 of 319 statewide, top 75%, 495 students, 98% FRL) — zoned schools average 98% FRL vs 60% district-wide (38 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 32 active listings in the ZIP; 25 units permitted in Lunenburg County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Lunenburg County population projected at -27% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• Current owner paid $60k; 50% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.