866 County Line Rd · Keysville, VA 23947

$89,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 960 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 13 Days on market

Built 1990 0.60 ac lot Est $130k · 31% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Attetion Investors - Great buy on a 3 bedroom home within 3 miles of Keysville. Needs a little TLC. Would be a great rental unit. Property is being sold in AS IS condition. Come - take a look!

Key facts

• 0.6 acre lot
• Built 1990
• Listed 13 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $90k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $719 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $90k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#261 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Lunenburg County Public School District (rural): math 33% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #110 of 131 in VA (top 84%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Victoria Elementary (math 37% / reading 57%, grade D-, #794 of 1,108 statewide, top 74%, 378 students, 99% FRL); Lunenburg Middle (math 23% / reading 63%, grade D-, #288 of 342 statewide, top 85%, 332 students, 98% FRL); Central High (math 57% / reading 67%, grade B-, #231 of 319 statewide, top 75%, 495 students, 98% FRL) — zoned schools average 98% FRL vs 60% district-wide (38 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 32 active listings in the ZIP; 25 units permitted in Lunenburg County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $622 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lunenburg County population projected at -27% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 13 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $60k; 50% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $89,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
3. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.76% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.89%
• Cash-on-cash: 34.26%
• DSCR: 2.52
• GRM: 4.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $129,600
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
866 County Line Rd	0.00mi	3/1.0	920 (-4%)	1mo	$89,900	$98	92
1122 County Line Rd	0.24mi	3/1.0	960 (0%)	24mo	$130,000	$135	69

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 29.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.24×
• Total profit: $31,173
• Equity at exit: $13,404

10-year hold

• IRR: 36.9%
• Equity multiple: 4.41×
• Total profit: $85,962
• Equity at exit: $7,773

Cash invested: $25,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 23947

• Home prices YoY: -14.9%
• Active inventory: 32
• Price-to-rent: 4.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,586 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$471
• Tax from tax record: −$26 /mo · $307/yr
• Insurance: −$37
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$333
• Net cashflow: $719

Break-even live

Break-even rent $677

Max offer price $89,900

Occupancy floor 50%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $770	-5% $744	+0% $719	+5% $693	+10% $668
Rent	-10% $593	-5% $656	+0% $719	+5% $781	+10% $844
Rate	-1.0pp $764	-0.5pp $741	base $719	+0.5pp $695	+1.0pp $672

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,475
• Closing costs: $2,697
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-04-27
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-14
   listed $89,900 Active
3. 2011-05-02
   soldstatus $60,000
4. 2008-02-20
   soldstatus $22,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $307 · $26/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $737 · $61/mo
• Expected delta: +$430/yr (+$36/mo · 140.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 13% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,034
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,036
• − Property taxes: −$307
• − Insurance: −$450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,523
• − Management: −$1,523
• − Depreciation: −$2,615
• Taxable income: $7,582
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,820
• After-tax cash flow: $6,804/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lunenburg County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5102310
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -41.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $37,728
• Composite: 38.6/100
• National rank: #4162
• State rank: #110 of 131 in VA

Livability — Keysville

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #261
• US rank: #9138

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment F Housing D- Health & safety A+ User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 3,195

Population outlook (Lunenburg County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 11,367 people
• By 2030: 10,757 · -5.4%
• By 2040: 9,464 · -16.7%
• By 2050: 8,329 · -26.7%
• By 2075: 6,292 · -44.6%
• By 2100: 4,575 · -59.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Black 16% Two or more races 5%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Serbian 1% Scottish 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · South Korea
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lunenburg

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+22.8) · D 38.3% · R 61.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.3pp toward R · 2008: -3.5pp · 2024: -22.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+22.8 2020: R+18.6 2016: R+17.6 2012: R+5.0 2008: R+3.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -30.08%
• Current HPI: 171.9927
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+308.6% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-27 Pending — SCAR
• 2026-04-14 Listed $89,900 SCAR
• 2011-05-02 Sold (Public Records) $60,000 Public Records
• 2008-02-20 Sold (Public Records) $22,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.3%/yr

Latest (2026): $307 · +12.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.