12234 Clay Station Rd

Clay, CA 95638

$595,000D+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,620 sqft · Built 1989 · Manufactured · Active · 85 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $4,995/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,120
• Tax + insurance: −$516
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,049
• Net cashflow: $310/mo
• Annual: $3,718/yr
• Cap rate: 6.92%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.23%
• DSCR: 1.10
• 1% rule: 0.84%
• Cash to close: $166,600

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $595k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $310 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $500k (16.1% below list).
• It's been on market 85 days — a 6% lower offer ($559k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $500k (16.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $13k of equity ($4k loan paydown + $9k appreciation (1.5% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 50/100 on livability (#1,124 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing B; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Galt Joint Union High (town): math 75% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #137 of 517 in CA (top 26%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 14 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 6,825 units permitted in Sacramento County in 2024 (1,752 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Sacramento County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Current owner paid $269k; list at $595k implies a 121% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (1.5% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $167k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$45k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 85 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.