12234 Clay Station Rd · Clay, CA 95638

$595,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,620 sqft · Manufactured public records · 85 Days on market

Built 1989 5.00 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +5.7/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Look no further! Large open floor plan 3bed 2bath manufactured home with separate family and living room on 5 acres updated with newer int/ext paint, flooring and updated kitchen. A Must See!

Key facts

• 5 acre lot
• Built 1989
• Listed 85 days

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: No homeowners association; Not a senior community

Exterior

• Parking: No garage
• Utilities: Well water; Septic system; Propane tank (leased); 220 volt electric
• Home design: Detached manufactured home; Single-story
• Construction: Shingle roof; Built in 1989
• Exterior features: Allows horses; Cross-fenced and fenced areas for horses; Shed(s) and storage structures; Regular-shaped lot (see remarks)

Interior

• Kitchen: Free standing gas range; Range hood
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (all on the main level, including the master bedroom)
• Flooring: Laminate; Tile; Wood
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Master bath with shower stall(s), double sinks and tub; Other baths with tub/shower over tub
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Quartz and stone kitchen counters; Dining and family room combined; Living room with additional features
• Laundry & utility: Indoor laundry hookups only

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $595k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $310 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $500k (16.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $500k (16.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 50/100 on livability (#1,124 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing B; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Galt Joint Union High (town): math 75% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #137 of 517 in CA (top 26%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 14 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 6,825 units permitted in Sacramento County in 2024 (1,752 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $13k of equity ($4k loan paydown + $9k appreciation (1.5% local appreciation)).
• Sacramento County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (1.5% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $167k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$45k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 85 days — a 6% lower offer ($559k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $269k; list at $595k implies a 121% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $499,500 (16.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 85 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.92%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.23%
• DSCR: 1.10
• GRM: 9.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

1.46% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 5.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.26×
• Total profit: $44,061
• Equity at exit: $217,400

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.15×
• Total profit: $191,472
• Equity at exit: $300,286

Cash invested: $166,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95638

• Home prices YoY: 0.4%
• Active inventory: 14
• Price-to-rent: 9.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,995 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,120
• Tax from tax record: −$268 /mo · $3,217/yr
• Insurance: −$248
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,049
• Net cashflow: $310

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,603

Max offer price $595,000

Occupancy floor 89%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $647	-5% $478	+0% $310	+5% $141	+10% $-27
Rent	-10% $-85	-5% $112	+0% $310	+5% $507	+10% $704
Rate	-1.0pp $609	-0.5pp $461	base $310	+0.5pp $156	+1.0pp $-1

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $148,750
• Closing costs: $17,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
12999 Borden Rd Herald, CA	2.0	2.0	1607	$4,995	$3.11	2d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-06-01
   days on market $595,000 Active 85 DOM
2. 2026-05-31
   days on market $595,000 Active 84 DOM
3. 2019-07-25
   soldstatus $269,000
4. 1989-10-18
   soldstatus $10,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,217 · $268/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,522 · $377/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,305/yr (+$109/mo · 40.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 24 unhealthy d/yr today · 29 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $59,940
• − Mortgage interest: −$33,329
• − Property taxes: −$3,217
• − Insurance: −$2,975
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,795
• − Management: −$4,795
• − Depreciation: −$17,309
• Taxable loss: −$6,481
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,555
• After-tax cash flow: $5,273/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Galt Joint Union High
• NCES district ID: 0614820
• Math proficiency: 75% ▲ 48.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -32.00%
• Median HH income: $62,916
• Composite: 44.24/100
• National rank: #2844
• State rank: #137 of 517 in CA

Livability — Clay

• Score: 50/100
• State rank: #1124
• US rank: #25638

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing B Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Clay, CA
• Population (ZIP): 2,295

Population outlook (Sacramento County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,660,763 people
• By 2030: 1,732,990 · +4.3%
• By 2040: 1,855,755 · +11.7%
• By 2050: 1,941,335 · +16.9%
• By 2075: 2,046,162 · +23.2%
• By 2100: 1,961,444 · +18.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 67% Hispanic / Latino 21% Two or more races 9% Black 7% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 16%
• Common ancestry: Russian 7% Portuguese 4% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 13% Other Indo-European 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Sacramento

• 2024 margin: D (+19.7) · D 58.1% · R 38.4% · Other 3.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.7pp no change · 2008: 19.0pp · 2024: 19.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+19.7 2020: D+25.3 2016: D+23.7 2012: D+16.3 2008: D+19.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.46%
• Current HPI: 356.2815
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+2590.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2019-07-25 Sold (Public Records) $269,000 Public Records
• 1989-10-18 Sold (Public Records) $10,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,217 · +1.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.